According to a navigation order from the Ukraine Navy, new temporary traffic routes for civilian vessels to and from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine have been announced. The routes have previously been recognised by the International Maritime Organisation, noting Ukraine’s right to free commercial shipping under international maritime law. The specified routes will primarily be used for the possibility of exiting civilian vessels that have been in the Ukrainian ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdenny since the beginning of war. Vessels whose owners or captains officially confirm readiness for sailing in the current conditions will be allowed to pass through the routes. The statement noted that there is a military threat and mine danger from Russia, as Russia’s Defence Ministry said last month that all ships headed to Ukraine’s ports would be considered as potentially carrying military cargo.

CONAB has revised up Brazil’s 2022-23 corn crop to 130 million tonnes (Mt) from 127.8Mt, reflecting both higher area and yields; analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 135.5Mt. Soybean production was left unchanged at 154.6Mt.

More heavy rain is expected in parts of China’s north-east that includes the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning, and the Inner Mongolia region, in the next few days. Local governments are making urgent preparations to secure agriculture production and minimise crop losses in an area that produces almost 30 percent  of China’s grain. Although the full picture of the damage sustained so far isn’t clear, recent flooding has inundated corn and rice crops.

The Ukrainian Agrarian Council reports that unfavourable weather conditions have resulted in low protein content with the proportion of milling wheat for the 2023-24 harvest falling to 40pc, compared to an average of around 70pc.

Strategie Grains have cut their EU wheat crop forecast by 1.4Mt to 124.7Mt versus 125.3Mt in the previous year, reflecting hot and dry weather during spring. Northern Europe has been hit by heavy rains that raise the risk of yield losses and cuts to crop quality. Bey production was increased by 100,000t, to 47.2Mt, down around 4Mt from last year. Maize production was cut by 2.1Mt, to 58.7Mt vs 52.1Mt last year.

FranceAgriMer reports that recent rainfall in the north of the country is expected to adversely affect the milling quality of the 2023-24 common wheat crop. However, wheat harvested before the recent rain was showing satisfactory falling numbers and protein content.

Japan’s MAFF purchased a total of 93,972t of milling wheat from the US and Canada in their regular tender.

All eyes will be on the August WASDE out today, particularly US corn and soybean yields, Canadian production and the USDA’S take on what Black Sea exports will look like.

Australia

Local markets continued on their merry way yesterday, with bids under it through the northern feedgrain market as there is still no sign of any meaningful rain on the 12-14 day forecast. In NSW, Port Kembla new-crop APW multigrade bids were still around $430/t while Victoria and South Australia were around $400/t. The same trading themes applied with buyers chasing barley in WA and SA on current crop, and we also saw prompt old malting barley in SA trade on Clear Grain Exchange at $330/t track values.

Most of Western Australia’s cropping regions have picked up 10-25mm over the past 10 days, with higher totals of 25-50mm in the south being very well timed. SA, Vic and southern NSW continue to pick up 5-10mm which is keeping things ticking along. There is another 15-25mm on the forecast this week for south-east WA, SA and south-east NSW.

Central/northern NSW and Qld are becoming very dry, with crops suffering from heat and moisture stress with above-average daytime temperatures and no rain on the forecast. The next two weeks will start to become a tipping point.