Wheat continued to rise. Oilseeds and corn eased. The US dollar index weakened slightly to 90.8
- Chicago wheat March contract up US13.25cents/bushel to 596.5c/bu;
- Kansas wheat March contract up 12.5c/bu to 564.5c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat March contract up 7c/bu to 562.5c/bu;
- MATIF wheat March contract up €2/t to €204.75;
- Corn March contract down 2.5c/bu to 421.25c/bu;
- Soybeans January contract down 5.75c/bu to 1152.75c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola January contract down C$0.40/t to $587.40/t;
- MATIF rapeseed February contract down €0.25/t to €408.50;
- Brent crude February up US$1.39 per barrel to $50.25;
- Dow Jones index down 70 points to 29,999;
- AUD firmer at $0.754;
- CAD firmer at $1.274;
- EUR firmer at $1.214.
- WASDE values were no big surprise with corn at 1.7 billion bushels ending stocks, beans 175 million bushels (mbu), and wheat 862 mbu, although given the price response there were some in the bean market who had held out private hopes for a larger stocks cut in this report. World figures saw Brazilian beans unchanged while Argentine corn and beans were both cut by 1 million tonnes.
- With the WASDE out of the way, the next big report for the markets will be January’s stocks and winter wheat acreage reports. Stocks will be closely watched for indications about any corrections to the US row crop balance sheets, as this is the Q1 feed-usage-and-residual driver. while seedings are the first formal estimate on new crop winter wheat plantings there.
- The rumours about Russian export taxes have been going round the market. Everyone has their own speculative idea about what the level and impacts will be. Many are drawing comparisons to the existing taxes on other items and the 2015 mechanism, which would imply a 50pc tax above a certain price threshold, but there’s no official announcement yet.
- Cash markets have been in a flurry in the Black Sea region with the speculation, and there are lots of questions about the implementation and timing.
- South American weather maps are still in need of rain. The next two week’ outlooks across central Brazil have light showers but still well below normal, and almost nothing in Argentina
- We did also see regular export sales reports. Wheat was slightly above expectations at 0.6Mt of wheat, 1.4Mt of corn, and 569,000t of soybeans. On the wheat side, there was a new boat of China wheat in the mix, and 104,000t of unknown sales that some believe are China. Milo/sorghum had two boats sold, one to China, and one to unknown destination, probably China.
- We finally saw a day of green on the boards. Grower cash bids were up a buck or two along the east coast and WA, while South Australia wheat values were relatively unchanged
- East coast canola bids showed a touch more strength being up $2-3/tt
- Freight rates continue to remain firm. With a strong export program on for December truck availability is tight and in high demand
- Harvest pace now ramps up with better weather conditions through SNSW, Victoria and South Australia. Growers should get a good run over the next 5-6 days with temps heating up.
Source: Lachstock Consulting
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