US wheat was firmer.

• Chicago wheat March contract up 1 cents per bushel to 523.75c;
• Kansas wheat March contract up  5.25c/bu to 431.25c;
• Minneapolis wheat March contract up 4.75c/bu to 518c;
• MATIF wheat March contract down €0.25 to €183/t;
• Corn March contract up 1.25c to 377c;
• Soybeans January contract up 4c/bu to 901.25c;
• Winnipeg canola January contract down C$0.30/t to $458.80/t;
• MATIF rapeseed February contract down €1/t to €397.75/t;
• Brent crude February contract up US$0.09 to $64.34 per barrel;
• Dow Jones index down 27.88 points to 27881.72 points;
• AUD weaker at $0.6806;
• CAD stronger at $1.3235;
• EUR stronger at $1.1091.

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• Quiet overseas markets after a non-event WASDE report
• GASC tender results up US$5/t on last week with French back in the mix
• Locally harvest pace continues to roll on with good conditions
• There is a busy month ahead on the Australian shipping stem, with boats loading for exports and to head around to the east coast.

 

Quiet results on the boards overnight, with markets watching cautiously into the USDA report but few significant changes (and none that were unexpected) to be found. Chicago picked up a quarter of a cent on the close to 523.75¢, KC gained four and 3/4¢ to 431.25¢ (with support from a tighter HRW balance sheet) and Minny picked up 2.25¢ to 515.5¢ (Matif wheat traded down a quarter of a euro to 183€ – but on the earlier close). Corn ended up 3/4¢ to 377¢, and beans gained three cents to 901 1/4¢ with some ongoing talk about more Chinese business happening.  Winnipeg gave up 30¢ to $458.8 and Matif lost a euro to 397.75€.  Crude oil is trading at $59.2 WTI / $64.3 Brent, up nominally from the other day, and the DOW is up 15 points.  The AUD is in the 68.1¢ range, the CAD at $1.323, and the EUR is at $1.109.

On the macro front, the “new NAFTA”, the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) appears to have finally crossed the line, with amendments signed by all sides in Mexico City a few hours ago and expectations that it will pass the House later this week or early next.

Hog futures have bounced sharply on the news, with expectations for a bigger program to Mexico to follow.

We do also note that Argentina’s government has officially changed over today, following election results earlier.  There’s no word yet about changes to agricultural export taxes but there are many such expectations.

The December WASDE report came and went without much to show in the market.

The USDA did tighten up the US wheat balance sheets, reducing durum imports and increasing some wheat exports.  USDA left row crop figures entirely unchanged for the US.

Global production saw them cut their Australian crop estimate to 16.1Mt (Lachstock 15.9), Argentine 19Mt, down 1Mt, and Canadian 32.35Mt, down 550,000t with associated balancing to demand.

Interestingly, they did push up their Russian crop and export estimate by 500,000t each. The higher production was not unexpected, but the increased export figure is causing some discussion.

Overall though, as has been joked many times before – copy and paste last month’s report and let’s move on.

In the meantime, markets continue to look towards the new season winter wheat crops – with comments out of France the other day calling acres down 5pc in the wet conditions.

 

Meanwhile, warm and dry conditions prevail across Ukraine and southern Russia.

 

GASC tender figures came through, with six cargoes bought at around $238/t.  That was up some $5/t from the last tender and saw two French vessels (single port) in the mix at near parity C&F to Russian.

There was another French offer (double port) but some $6/t out of the money given the higher freight for double port loading.

We haven’t yet seen Philippines results, but will be watching that given relative competitiveness out of the east coast Australia.

Australia

Back locally there is some improvement on the latest long term GFS runs – bringing chances of rain 50-100mm plus across the Downs into later next weekend.

We wouldn’t hang our hat on it yet though.

Locally harvest pace continues to roll on with good conditions.

Growers up along the Victoria and New South Wales border are almost completed with a small proportion to go.

Viterra network has hit 3.2mmt, all grains with 340,000mt hitting the bins over the past week.

Both Viterra and CBH have a busy month ahead on the shipping stem loading boats for exports and to head around to the east coast.

Markets yet again continued to firm with the cash boards up slightly and trade offers pushing higher through domestic markets.

ASX Jan wheat settled $347/t while delivered Geelong Melbourne ASW1 for Jan is around $347/t