Markets

Daily Market Wire 11 December 2023

Lachstock Consulting, December 11, 2023

Offshore Friday markets eased about one percent. Friday’s Brent crude oil price ended 2 percent firmer stalling December’s slide. 

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat down 10.5c/bu to US631.75c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat down 6.5c/bu to 661c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat down 7.75c/bu to 729.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 down 1.75/t to €230.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn March 2024 down 2.5c/bu to 485.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 7c/bu to 1337.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$8.60/t to C$674.20/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €1.25/t to €444.25/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat up A$2/t to $398/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley down A$5/t to $325/t;
  • AUD dollar down 25 points to  US$0.6577.

International

The USDA released the December World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates on Friday, which was neutral in general for corn, soybeans and wheat with no major surprises in the report. World wheat production was revised up by 1Mt, with Canada up by 0.95Mt to 31.95Mt and Australia up by 1Mt to 25.5Mt partially offset by a 1Mt downward revision for Brazil (8.4Mt). 

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported for the week ending 6 Dec, the 2023-24 wheat harvest was 48pc complete (42pc previous year), with average productivity estimated at 2.4t/ha. Soybean sowing was 52pc complete (37pc), with good establishment noted for early-planted crops, except in northern parts of Entre Rios province. Amid favourable conditions, maize plantings estimated to be 40pc complete (33pc). However, overly wet conditions hampered fieldwork in Entre Ríos and southern Buenos Aires. Sorghum sowing was 36pc complete, with fields in generally good condition. 

Conab Brazil reports that less than ideal conditions in core regions have reduced yield potential for 2023-24 soybean production, with the forecast cut by 2.2Mt, to 160.2Mt (154.6Mt previous year). Exports are lowered by 3.0Mt, to 100.0Mt (78.7Mt). 2023-24 total maize production forecast cut by 0.5Mt, to 118.5Mt (131.9Mt previous year), reflecting a marginal downgrading of expectations for acreage and yields for the primary (full-season) crop. 2023-24 wheat production cut by 1.5Mt, to 8.1Mt (10.6Mt), with exports cut by 0.6Mt, to 2.0Mt (2.7Mt). 

FranceAgriMer reports that as at 4 Dec, 2023-24 maize harvest was 99pc complete (99pc five-year average). 2024-25 common wheat planting was 89pc complete (96pc), durum at 54pc (79pc), winter barley at 94pc (98pc) and spring barley at 10pc (10pc). 2024-25 common wheat crop rated 77pc good/excellent (97pc previous year) and winter barley at 81pc (97pc) 

US private exporters reported the sale of another 110kt SRW wheat to China during the 2023-24 marketing year, 136kt soybeans and 165kt corn for delivery to unknown destinations The latest announcement takes US SRW sales to China last week alone to 1.12Mt. 

South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) reportedly purchased 65kt feed wheat from optional origins, at $275.90/mt c&f, for May arrival. 

Egypt’s GASC purchased 420kt wheat from Russia at $286/mt c&f (freight costs were set at $21/t), for Jan shipment.

Australia

Local markets were a touch softer to finish the week, although ASX Jan 24 wheat was close to unchanged. With the rainfall event through SA/Vic/SNSW slowing harvest pace, there is still plenty of crop yet to be harvested and growers will be anxious to get going again. Wheat quality appears to have held up surprisingly well despite rain to date but that might not be the case with ongoing rainfall events. 

Rainfall totals for the week ending 10 December were heaviest in SA where 25-100mm was received, Vic totals were lower with 10-25mm received across southern zones and southern NSW mostly receiving less than 10mm except for the southeast where pockets received 15-25mm. There is another 10-25mm on the forecast for SA and southern Vic this week which will be very unwelcome.

 

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