Markets

Daily Market Wire 11 February 2022

Lachstock Consulting, February 11, 2022

Markets exhibited wide trading ranges overnight and closed weaker by 1pc to 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat March contract down US13.5cents per bushel to 771.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March contract down 14c/bu to 801c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March down 11.5c/bu to 942.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March contract down €1.25/t to €261.50/t;
  • Corn March contract down 5c/bu to 641.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans March contract down 20.5c/bu to 1574.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2022 contract down C$7.90/t to $1005.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2022 contract up €3.50/t to €686.25/t;
  • ASX March 2022 wheat contract A$1/t weaker at $360/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract $2/t firmer at $362/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.716.

International

Black Sea wheat was up US$0.25/t. The March-22 Black Sea wheat contract posted contract highs on the 23rd of November of USD$376/t – since then there has been potential war, speculation over subsequent export bans and general tightness in the export market. It closed overnight at US$315.25/t.

Soybean meal was down 2 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrials Average down 1pc.

Markets last night exhibited trading ranges of 4pc to 5pc, huge by any measure. March soybean meal closed lower, at US$453/st and had been trading at USD$478 during the session. Beans were also well off the highs – 1632usc/bu during the session to close at 1573usc/bu.

Export sales were largely in line with expectations – better for beans, under for wheat and corn. The US exported 1.6 million tonnes (Mt) of soybeans, 589,100t of corn and wheat sales of just 84,000t.

CONAB released its much-anticipated corn and soybean estimates. It pegged beans at 125.5Mt, some 8.5mmt below the just released USDA estimate. Conversely it increased the corn estimate – indicating the recent rally in price will attract acres. Both crops should yield 112.34Mt, 29pc over last year’s disappointing result.

The Canadian trucker strike is gaining momentum, protesting against the mandate that requires truckers entering Canada to be vaccinated or else be subjected to testing and quarantine requirements.

Russia / Ukraine tensions are seemingly at a standstill. US mainstream press are full of “what ifs” but, as it stands the US and Europe have nothing to impose sanctions over. Oddly to me is the directive that the Biden administration would move to sanction Nord Steam 2 first, while this would have an impact on Russian current account the main impact would be to Europe who is desperately reliant on Russian gas. Around 40pc of Europe’s piped natural gas use is source from Russia and, once online, Nord Stream 2 would increase this percentage.

Australia

Local markets were quiet yesterday with the trade focused heavily on execution of existing business. Freight is still a major issue with domestic truck rates regularly quoted between 14-15c/km/t – pre-COVID, longer haul may have even been south of 11c. Diesel continues to post new highs – Melbourne’s average terminal gate price for diesel was quoted at 167c/lt vs 139c/lt at the start of Dec last year

Weather has been kind to sorghum harvest after a rough start. Patterns remain dry for the next 15 days according to the longer-range forecasts. Out of season rainfall is due to fall through the northern wheat belt in WA with falls of over an inch forecast.

Spreads between wheat and barley have moved significantly over the harvest period. The Pt Kembla spread between APW1 and F1 posted a high in mid Dec of AUD$176/t. Yesterday it was back to AUD$121/t.

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