Daily market wire 11 Jan 2017

Lachstock Consulting January 11, 2017


Slight losses for grains, stronger for oilseeds.

CBOT Wheat was down -0.5c to 426.75c, Kansas wheat down -0.25c to 438.25c, corn down -1.75c to 358.25c, soybeans up 8.5c to 1013.75c, Winnipeg canola up 0.80$C to 500$C, and Matif canola up 1.75€ to 414.5€. The Dow Jones down -31.850 to 19855.53 , Crude Oil down -1.18c to 50.78c, AUD up to 0.736c, CAD up to 1.323c, (AUDCAD 0.975) and the was EUR down to 1.055c (AUDEUR 0.6981).

CONAB increased Brazil’s crop estimate up 1.2% to 103.8 mmt, but beans still managed to rally as Argentina’s moisture becoming more of a concern. Where flooding is reducing production estimates in some areas. Some surprised by the rally considering that China buying remains slow as crush margins reduce and they wind down ahead of their new year.

Nothing fresh for wheat and corn, waiting for the report on Thursday, so market has some fresh news to trade. They both traded lower on light volume with some early profit taking, before

Index fund buying occurred late into the session to help grains recover close to unchanged.

US spring wheat is trading increased China demand, on top of this, new crop profitability is suggesting that spring wheat will lose acres to beans which helps high protein wheat find a bid.

Wheat market is stagnant, waiting to trade new season acres.

Canola followed the strength in beans to close higher.

In Australia the focus remains on executing existing business and Q2 demand. The market feels heavy in Victoria and SA where harvest is still occurring, but not so much in NSW, where harvest is over and the grower has sold a decent amount.

Can you attribute the $5-10 track spread to grower liquidity? As there is not a supply problem in NSW.

If so does that make Vic a buy at current levels? Demand for feed barley and ASW is ongoing out of China, but we are yet to see anything beyond hand to mouth buying.

Saudi is expected to tender for more feed barley later this month, which could see some support given that Australia is at or below export parity.

Source: Lachstock Consulting 


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