Moves in futures market settlements were small and mixed.
- Chicago March 2024 wheat up 0.75c/bu to US610.75c/bu;
- Kansas March 2024 wheat down 2.5c/bu to 624.5c/bu;
- Minneapolis March 2024 wheat up 2.25c/bu to 707.75c/bu;
- MATIF wheat March 2024 up €2/t to €221.50/t;
- Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
- Corn May 2024 unchanged at US471.5c/bu;
- Soybeans May 2024 down 11.25c/bu to 1247.5c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$5.30/t to C$627.60/t;
- MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €3.50/t to €427.75/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat down A$2.50/t to $368/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley unchanged at A$307.50/t;
- AUD dollar up 14 points to US$0.6700.
Brazil’s Conab cut its soybean crop estimate by 4.9Mt from December to 155.3Mt (still marginally higher than last year’s record) and cut the corn projection by 0.9Mt to 117.6Mt (down 11% YoY), reflecting planting delays and development issues due to hot, dry conditions in central growing areas and excessive moisture in the south. Numbers could fall further as the soybean harvest advances and second crop corn planting gets underway. Conab revissed downward its estimate of soybean exports by 3.05Mt to 98.45Mt, down 3% year on year and cut corn exports by 3Mt to 35Mt (56Mt previous year).
Algeria’s state grains agency has a tender for 30,000t feed barley from optional origins, Feb shipment.
Japan’s MAFF seeks (17 Jan) 60,000t feed wheat and 20,000t feed barley, for Feb shipment.
Jordan’s state grains buyer reportedly made no purchase in their international tender (9 Jan) for 120,000t milling wheat from optional origins for Mar/May shipment, with a new tender expected to be issued.
Tunisia’s state grains agency seeks (10 Jan) 50,000t durum from optional origins, for Jan/Feb shipment and 50,000t feed barley from optional origins, for Feb shipment. Finance will be provided by the African Development Bank (ADB).
Local markets carried on the same theme of thin liquidity. Canola values were a touch firmer yesterday following offshore moves but were not enough to entice much selling. ASX March 24 wheat closed down A$0.50/t at $369/t. With some more rain on the forecast for VIC next week the quality impacts will start to compound, and logistics may start to become a problem.
The BOM’s latest Climate Driver Update released this week notes that the El Niño event continues in the tropical Pacific. It also notes that high-impact rainfall events can occur during El Niño years, particularly during October to April when severe storm frequency peaks. Model forecasts indicate the warmth of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is likely at or near its peak, with SSTs expected to remain above El Niño thresholds into the southern hemisphere autumn 2024. Some atmospheric indicators have weakened over the past three weeks, and the SOI is currently neutral. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently positive. The SAM index is expected to decrease slightly, but stay near the positive SAM threshold for the coming fortnight. During summer, a positive SAM historically increases the chance of above average rainfall for parts of eastern NSW, south-eastern Queensland, eastern Victoria. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is weakening steadily.