Lots of risk of sentiment around on the ag side with the reports coming this week in the US – winter wheat and stocks reports can be wild cards

New flash export sales on Friday had 204,000t of old-crop beans selling to China.  The precise volume raises questions about whether it will offset an unknown position or be a late-season shipment after the South American new-crop surge slows.

CFTC figures out Friday had new record longs on corn and slightly shorter longs on soybeans, though still a record for this point in the year.  Wheat longs were up 11,800 on Chicago, with managed money cutting the short by 25,000.

Estimates out of Brazil had the Brazilian farmer at around 58-per-cent sold on their new-season soybean crop already, capitalising on the weaker local currency and firm prices through the past couple of months.

South American weather maps have turned dry again on extended runs for Argentina, though northern soybean areas should see at least 30-50 millimetres of rain this week. Worries about drought stress have been fairly muted for soybeans so far, but concerns are again increasing around corn.

The Mexican Government is debating whether the proposed GMO corn ban would apply to feed corn too;  if it does, it will be a boon for US sorghum producers, as much of the Mexican feed program uses US corn.

Black Sea markets are back from holiday tonight; while the Orthodox New Year is Thursday, its effect on the trade will be limited.