Markets

Daily Market Wire 11 January 2021

Lachstock Consulting, January 11, 2021
Market movements were mixed in Friday trading.
  • Chicago wheat March contract down US3.5 cents per bushel to 638.75c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract down 3.75c/bu to 594.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 4.5c/bu to 607.75c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €2.25/t to €216.75;
  • Corn March contract up 2.25c/bu to 496.25c;
  • Soybeans March contract up 19.5c/bu to 1374.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract up C$8.40/t to $665.20;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract up €7.75/t to €440;
  • Brent crude March up US$1.61 per barrel to $55.99;
  • Dow Jones index up 57 points to  31,098 points;
  • AUD at $0.770;
  • CAD at $1.275;
  • EUR at $1.217

International

Lots of risk of sentiment around on the ag side with the reports coming this week in the US – winter wheat and stocks reports can be wild cards

New flash export sales on Friday had 204,000t of old-crop beans selling to China.  The precise volume raises questions about whether it will offset an unknown position or be a late-season shipment after the South American new-crop surge slows.

CFTC figures out Friday had new record longs on corn and slightly shorter longs on soybeans, though still a record for this point in the year.  Wheat longs were up 11,800 on Chicago, with managed money cutting the short by 25,000.

Estimates out of Brazil had the Brazilian farmer at around 58-per-cent sold on their new-season soybean crop already, capitalising on the weaker local currency and firm prices through the past couple of months.

South American weather maps have turned dry again on extended runs for Argentina, though northern soybean areas should see at least 30-50 millimetres of rain this week. Worries about drought stress have been fairly muted for soybeans so far, but concerns are again increasing around corn.

The Mexican Government is debating whether the proposed GMO corn ban would apply to feed corn too;  if it does, it will be a boon for US sorghum producers, as much of the Mexican feed program uses US corn.

Black Sea markets are back from holiday tonight; while the Orthodox New Year is Thursday, its effect on the trade will be limited.

Tomorrow US time will bring the USDA’s next key grain reports of stocks and winter wheat area estimates.  Surveyed estimates are calling for a 35-million-bushel reduction in soybean ending stocks and a 100Mbu reduction in corn.  Winter wheat acreage ideas have wide ranges but mostly lean towards an increase  of around 200,000 in Soft Red Winter wheat area, and 800,000 in Hard Red Winter wheat plantings for a total figure near 31.5M acres.

Australia

Trading was thin on Friday in local markets.  The Victorian harvest is in its final leg, with most activity now concentrated in the Western Districts.

More rain is forecast for this weekend on Queensland’s eastern Darling Downs, and models suggest 10-20 millimetres is possible.

The outlook for the sorghum crop remains optimistic based on soil moisture and forecast rain.

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