Daily Market Wire 11 July 2024

Lachstock Consulting July 11, 2024

Canola and US winter wheats eased about 2 percent as all markets closed lower. The Dow firmed more than 1 percent.

  • Chicago December 2024 down US10.5 cents per bushel to US585c/bu;
  • Kansas Dec 2024 wheat down 12.5c/bu to 583.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat down 6.75c/bu to 629.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €3.75/t to €229.50/t;
  • Corn Dec 2024 down 1.25c/bu to 407.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans Nov 2024 down 13c/bu to 1067c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 down C$14.40/t to C$617.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 down €6.50/t to €483.75/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 wheat unchanged at A$352/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 barley unchanged at $A303.90/t;
  • AUD dollar up 6 points to US$0.6747.


Same same but different. Asset class selling is still evident in the settlements overnight. Grains and oilseeds were down and soft commodities were up. Wheat and beans eased ahead of tonight’s USDA report while corn firmed. Russian FOB wheat was quoted a dollar or two higher, bucking the US trend of lower wheat price.  

Kansas was lower on ideas USDA will add tons to the balance sheet tonight. Probably it would be too early to make a change, but it would be interesting if USDA lifted exports to offset the production gain. Weekly wheat export sales have been averaging 680kt over the last 3 weeks and only about 310kt would be needed to hit UDSA current target. The market is looking for 500kt this week given the 4th of July holiday. Corn has a massive spec short, impressive ethanol margin, and nowthere is more talk regarding just how much money a corn grower is losing per acre at current price levels. Depending on which part of the country you are in, US$4/bu corn would see you in the red to the tune of at least $250/ac. 

Weather outlook in August now is the focus of markets since hurricane Beryl providing some moisture across the US row crop belt. Many of the private weather boffins have been calling for lower rainfall and higher heat, which to date has failed to materialize. We cannot forget the premiership quarter is Aug and overnight temps are the barometer for yield. As we get closer to mid-month, the forecasts will be more heavily traded. 

Black Sea region temperatures are ramping up with 35-38°C forecast for the next 10 days. This heat wave will spread through the corn and sunflower areas of both Russia and the Ukraine and while that crop is mid-season, attention will be paid. 

Iron ore had another down day with reports of continued pressure in the Chinese steel industry. China’s biggest mills, Angang Steel, reported a preliminary loss of CNY2.68bn in H1 2024. Property developer China Vanke is also expected to report a first half loss this week. 

US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell played a straight bat overnight indicating a neutral stance on rates into year end.


Western Australian bids were lower yesterday. Canola (CAN) bids were A$800/t FIS. New season FIS wheat bids remained around $370/t and feed barley $330/t. New crop lupins were sought after with prices hitting $500 for both Geraldton and Kwinana port zones.  

In the east canola dropped about $20/t again. Some companies lowered their barley bids, but overall cereals top bids were unchanged to slightly higher.  

The rainfall maps for the past week are slowly filling out, with SA, NNSW and eastern WA accumulating the highest falls with 15-50mm. SE South Australia and western Vic are still below 5mm for the week, although forecasts are calling for up to 25mm in the latter part of next week. 

It was a cold night in most of the NSW cropping regions where minimum temperatures were between 1°C and 4°C overnight.

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