Markets

Daily Market Wire 11 June 2024

Lachstock Consulting, June 11, 2024

US wheat prices eased another at least 2 percent on Monday. The oilseeds made small gains.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat down 17.75c/bu to US659c/bu;
  • Kansas Dec 2024 wheat down 23c/bu to 676.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat down 17c/bu to 703.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €4.75/t to €247.25/t;
  • Corn Dec 2024 up 1c/bu to 468.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans Nov 2024 up 1c/bu to 1158.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 up C2.80/t to C$652.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €2/t to €478.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 wheat up A$1/t to $380/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 barley unchanged at $323.90/t;
  • AUD dollar up 29 points to US$0.6610.

International

Turkeys Ag. Ministry announced it would stop wheat imports from 21 June until at least 15 Oct amid efforts to support domestic producers during the harvest period and to ensure market stability. The ban could be extended beyond that date, depending on the market situation. Separately, it lifted the ban on export of flour from domestically produced wheat, in place since Sep 2018. Exports of barley, milling and durum wheat will be permitted, subject to an export licence. 

The Russian Union of Grain Exporters has called on Turkey to delay, by nine days, implementing a temporary wheat import ban to allow companies more time to fulfil existing contracts. 

The Alberta Crop Report for the week ending 4 June noted widespread rainfall hampered fieldwork in some low-lying areas, although the additional moisture was seen as beneficial for crop emergence. Sowing progress in the Peace region was well ahead of average, while progress elsewhere was in line with the historical average. Total 2024-25 plantings were 97pc complete (100pc previous year, 97pc five-year avg.), including spring wheat at 99pc (100pc previous year), barley at 94pc (100pc) and canola at 96pc (100pc). Provincial soil moisture levels declined slightly from the previous week but remained above the five- and ten-year averages. 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange noted that for the week ending 5 June, 2023-24 maize harvest reached 35pc complete (42pc previous year), with conditions rated 51pc fair/excellent (53pc, 47pc). Production was maintained at 46.5Mt. Soybean harvest has entered its final stages at 92pc complete with conditions rated 71pc fair/excellent (70pc, 74pc). Fieldwork in central-eastern parts of Entre Rios continued to be delayed as overly wet conditions prevented farmers from entering fields. Soybean production maintained at 50.5Mt. Sorghum harvest was 53pc complete, with biggest advances made in the central north. Harvest delays could pose some risk to yields, albeit currently the outlook is maintained at 3.5Mt. Season 2024-25 wheat sowing reached 26pc complete (19pc five-year avg), with activity largely centred on the central-north region where favourable, dry weather aided progress. Wheat production was projected to reach 18.1Mt (15.1Mt previous year). 

FranceAgriMer reported that as at 3 June, condition of 2024-25 common wheat rated 62pc good/excellent (61pc previous week, 88pc previous year), durum at 63pc (64pc, 82pc), winter barley at 63pc (64pc, 87pc), spring barley at 74pc (73pc, 89pc). Maize plantings at 90pc complete (98pc previous year). 

Tunisia’s state grains buyer reportedly purchased 50kt of milling wheat at US$267.77/t c&f, for Jul shipment and 75kt of barley, including 25kt at $219.49-$222.96/t c&f, Jun-Jul shipment. Finance is being provided by World Bank

Australia

The June long weekend saw most traders on Monday still away fishing and building bon fires. Markets were certainly not going anywhere though as the offshore slide continued. Local markets have been able to build some basis premium off the back of the slide but overall markets were looking heavy through last week. Melbourne ASW1 was down ~A$10/t for the week, and track was down by amounts closer to $15/t. Grower sellers are not flooding the market though, so there is a bit of a standoff building.

Weekly rainfall totals of up to 100mm in WA’s northern cropping zones and a further 10-50mm across central and southern has been the game changer for which everyone was hoping. Although it is late and the rainfall deficit is still there, the rain certainly gives crops a chance to catch up. SA has missed out again and time is certainly running out. Parts of northern, central and southeast NSW picked up more rain putting NSW in the box seat while western Vic needs more rain.

 

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