Markets

Daily Market Wire 11 May 2021

Lachstock Consulting, May 11, 2021

Grain and oilseed markets tumbled in overnight trading.

  • Chicago wheat July contract down US31.25c/bu to 730.5c;
  • Kansas wheat July contract down 33.25c/bu to 703.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract down 46c/bu to 751.5c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €8/t to €224/t;
  • Corn July contract down 20.5c/bu to 711.75;
  • Soybeans July contract down 2.25c/bu to 1587.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola July contract down C$30/t to $975.90;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €9.25/t to €532/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.7 to 90.2;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.783;
  • CAD firmer at $1.211;
  • EUR weaker at $1.213;
  • ASX wheat July contract down AU$2/t to $320/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $3.50/t to $324.50/t.

International

Markets took a breather ahead of USDA’s May WASDE report which will be released overnight Wednesday. The improved moisture outlook for both the US and Canada got some airtime but this looked more like taking some chips off the table. The market is looking for a global wheat ending stocks number of 295.38Mt, down slightly on the USDA April figure of 295.52Mt, and a new-crop average guess of 294.29Mt.

While China cancelled 280,000t of current-crop corn purchases from the US, it added 1.02Mt of new-crop purchases.  USDA printed a Brazil corn number of 109Mt, and the streets’ average guess is 103Mt for the May report. AgRural in Brazil printed 95.5Mt last night, well down on their previous estimate of 103.4Mt. Reports are coming through about conditions in Russia being too wet; historically, that has been a nice problem to have and generally leads to yields and production outperforming

USDA’s US Crop Condition report said spring wheat was 70-per-cent planted versus 49pc last week and 51pc average for this time of year, and winter wheat was rated as 49c good to excellent, up from 48pc last week. On row crops, corn was estimated at 67pc planted vs 46pc last week and 52pc average, and soybeans were seen as 42pc planted versus 24pc last week and 22pc average.

Australia

Showers pushed through across parts of South Australia yesterday and have helped  to dampen topsoil. Growers can now continue to plant or get germination on what has been planted dry. Parts of southern New South Wales also received some rain in the past 24 hours.  Another wide spread rain is needed across most of the NSW grainbelt to keep it in the game.

Both current and new-crop local markets were fairly quiet, with values largely unchanged across the boards, and small trades on the current crop for barley and wheat.  New crop canola continues to tick over with growers selling with confidence that have received good rainfall for date

We still continue to see a solid bulk program on paper with wheat pushing 3mmt for the month of May. Canola export pace remains strong with another 350,000t on the stem for May.

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