Daily Market Wire 11 May 2023

Lachstock Consulting May 11, 2023

Market moves were mixed and small in overnight trading.

  • Chicago wheat December 2023 contract down US3.5 cents per bushel to 669c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December 2023 contract steady at 833.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December 2023 up 2.5c/bu to 855c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2023 down €1.50/t to €236.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December 2023 up US$1/t to $277.75/t;
  • Corn July 2023 contract up US9.25 c/bu to 594c/bu;
  • Soybeans July 2023 contract down 10.25c/bu to 1404c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola July 2023 contract down C$3.40/t to $734.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed August 2023 up €1.50/t to €435.75/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract down A$3/t to $380/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at $317.80/t;
  • AUD dollar gained 18 points to US$0.6780.


Negotiations on the Grain Corridor are taking place in Istanbul with senior officials from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations. Russian demands on ship insurance, access to SWIFT, fertiliser exports, and access to agricultural machinery parts are unchanged with Russia saying its position is well known and consistent.

Refinitiv Commodities Research has kept its 2023-24 Russian wheat-production forecast unchanged, at 84.2 million tonnes (Mt), down from 104.2Mt in 2022-23. Latest satellite imagery confirms good early crop growth across winter wheat-growing areas. Spring wheat sowing is taking place across the country, although some delays have been noted in parts of Siberia following earlier cold conditions. Overall weather prospects are deemed favourable, with weather forecasts suggesting near-normal precipitation for the next week, with surpluses expected in parts of North Caucasia, Volga and Siberia.

Scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service see a probability of more than 60 percent that temperatures across the north-eastern US, Spain, France and Italy will be well above average from June to August. Much of Europe and the north-east US is in store for sweltering summer temperatures well above historical norms, posing risks for crops and energy demand

ANEC Brazil has revised up its May soybean export forecast by 3.3Mt to 15.4M versus 10.7Mt in May 2022 and soymeal exports were lifted by 200,000t to 2.4Mt against 1.1Mt in May 2022.

According to European Commission data for the week ending May 7, 2022-23 all-wheat exports at 27.7Mt is up 9pc from 2021-22. Barley exports at 8.1Mt are down 13pc from the previous year. Soybean imports at 10.7Mt are down 12pc, canola at 6.7Mt is up 46pc, and sunflowerseed at 2.1Mt is nearly four times the amount imported in the previous year.

India’s Meteorological Department reports that as at May 9, cumulative rainfall since March 1 is estimated to be 29pc above the long-term average, with excessive or normal rainfall at 75pc of monitoring stations.

Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has reportedly purchased 570,000t of milling wheat in its latest tender at US$276-$276.50/t C&F from Russia, Romania and France.


Local markets eased a fraction on both old-crop and new-crop bids over the trading day, but offers continued to come to the table and found a way to meet the market. ASW wheat in South Australia was again active on the Clear Grain Exchange platform, trading at A$362/t Port, while canola in the Albany zone traded at $720/t FIS, and is continuing to trade at large premiums of more than $100/t over east coast values.

Growers continue to power ahead with seeding, and some areas of Victoria and New South Wales are now more than halfway through their programs.

The 8-day forecast looks relatively dry, with less than 10mm on the cards. Parts of the Queensland’s Darling Downs are showing 10-15mm for the next eight days.


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