Markets

Daily Market Wire 11 November 2020

Lachstock Consulting, November 11, 2020

US corn and soybeans futures, 3 per cent firmer, led agricultural  markets stronger overnight.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed almost one per cent higher  despite some earlier session  profit taking and pessimism about vaccine timelines.  The US dollar index lifted to 92.8.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US11cents per bushel to 608.5c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 9c/bu to 561.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 6.5c/bu to 561.5c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €2.75/t to €212;
  • Corn December contract up 15.5c/bu to 423c;
  • Soybeans January contract up 35.5c/bu to 1146c;
  • Winnipeg canola January up C$9.90/t to $558.40;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract up €8.25/t to €409.50;
  • Brent crude January contract up US$1.21 per barrel to $43.61;
  • Dow Jones index up 263 points  to 29,421;
  • AUD weaker at $0.728;
  • CAD weaker at $1.302;
  • EUR weaker at $1.181.

International

  • Everything overnight was about the USDA, with big excitement on the boards after surprisingly bullish WASDE figures.  US crop figures were slightly tighter than expected. Total corn production was forecast 14.5 billion bushels (bbu) and yield at 175.8 bushels per acre. Beans 4.17 bbu crop and 50.7 bu/ac yield. USDA also drove up US corn exports by 325 million bushels which took carry out down to 1.7bbu, compared with earlier ideas which had been nearer to 2bbu.
  • To add to the tighter US stocks, the USDA also chose to partially kick the can down the road on the Chinese corn story. It added 6 million tonnes (Mt) of imports but that figure remains far below what many in the market estimate has been sold.  It is fair enough that USDA made note of the exports to date, but if estimates on business are to be believed they need to be closer to 25 or 30Mt
  • Wheat figures were something of a sideshow this time around, and markets remain more interested in the new crop potentials. Weather models held dry through this week in the Black Sea but they are still flirting with more moisture into next week
  • South American weather maps continue to predict widespread showers across Brazilian soybean regions, but overall dry conditions remain a going concern
  • Algeria’s OAIC is back again for wheat, with the tender set to close Thursday
  • New export sales had 123,000t of corn to South Korea flashed
  • A new set of EU tariffs on US goods came into effect overnight, following the earlier WTO case regarding the Airbus/Boeing subsidy disputes.  Grains were mostly not impacted, although US whiskey distillers’ products now will cost much more in EU countries.

Australia

  • East coast harvest wheat and barley cash bids were again a tad softer
  • Jan ASX 21 east coast wheat futures traded at $301/t for volume, down $3/t from previous day
  • Hot windy day through SA saw headers have to pull up as a result of some scattered showers that pushed across the Yorke
  • Canola markets remain hot with bids pushing to $650/t FIS in WA
  • Yields continue to impress in NSW with canola, barley and wheat all still performing above average

 

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