Markets

Daily Market Wire 11 November 2022

Lachstock Consulting, November 11, 2022

Wheat moves were relatively small, but corn eased 2pc and soybeans gained 2pc and the AUD gained 3pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US3 cents per bushel to 803.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 4.75c/bu at 925.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 6.75c/bu to 931.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €1.50/t to €327.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract unchanged at US$317.50/t;
  • Corn December contract down 11.25c/bu to 653.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract up 25.75/bu to 1453.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was down C$10.50/t to $878/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €7/t to  €637/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $A11/t to $473/t ;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$339/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.662.

International

The Argentine wheat crop is getting smaller each week, with two agencies slashing forecasts this week. The Rosario Board of Trade said frosts have compounded the drought, resulting in a wheat crop of 11.8 million tonnes (Mt) compared with their 13.7Mt estimate in October. The average yield is estimated to be the lowest since the drought of 2008-09.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly reports on its website and has lowered its estimate by 1.6Mt to 12.4Mt after a 1.2Mt cut last week.  Crop conditions are obviously much worse than the 15.5Mt estimate put out by the USDA this week.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service has pegged Ukraine’s 2022-23 corn production at 25.8Mt, well below the latest official USDA forecast of 31.5Mt. The report noted that harvest has been delayed and large areas won’t be done by December, when it is normally complete. The office estimates around 10 per cent of planted corn area might not be harvested, as farmers are facing both shortages of funds for fuel and available storage. Costs for natural gas used to dry harvested grain is also a factor. The report also said wheat exports for the season are seen at 12.4Mt, well above the USDA forecast of 11Mt. This factors in a potential shutdown of the Black Sea crop-export corridor in mid-November, the agency says. Limited export opportunities for Ukraine remain via rail, road and river.

Tunisia’s state grains office is seeking 100,000t each of durum and soft wheat and 75,000t of barley in a recent tender.

Saudi Grains Organization has released a tender to buy 595,000t of hard milling wheat of minimum 12.5pc protein from global suppliers for delivery in April through June 2023.

Australia

Local markets were softer again yesterday as harvest ramps up. The Australian dollar is contributing to the softening of values as it tips over US66c. Quality coming off to date remains a mixed bag.

Rainfall through eastern Australia over the past 24 hours was somewhat limited but there is more to come. The Victorian crop outlook is still strong, despite localised flooding, but the rain forecast for this weekend remains a concern. Many will be hoping the forecast is wrong, but it hasn’t seemed to be wrong since the start of spring. WA harvest is having better luck and is starting to get a roll on with canola coming off first.

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