Markets

Daily Market Wire 11 October 2019

Lachstock Consulting, October 11, 2019
Futures markets all lower after release of the USDA reports.
  • Chicago wheat December contract down 7.25c to 493c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 10 c to 403.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 6.5c to 535.25;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €2 to €177;
  • Corn December contract down 14c to 380.25c;
  • Soybeans November contract down 0.25c to 923.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract down C$3.80 to $459.50;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract down €3.25 to €383.50;
  • Brent crude December contract up $0.78 per barrel to $59.10;
  • Dow Jones index up 150.66 points to 26496.67 points;
  • AUD strengthened to US$0.6761;
  • CAD strengthened to $1.3289;
  • EUR strengthened to $1.1006;
In the wheat pits Chicago settled down -7.25 usc/bu closing at 493usc/bu, Kansas was -10 usc/bu lower to settle at 403.25usc/bu, while Minni softened -6.5 usc/bu to go out at 535.25usc/bu. Corn fell -14 usc/bu to go out at 380.25usc/bu while Beans were down -0.25 usc/bu to settle at 923.5usc/bu WCE Canola softened -3.8 CAD/mt closing at 459.5CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing lower by -3.25 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones fell 0 points, Crude was up 0.95 bbl the Aussie was 0.0038 higher to settle at 0.67605, the CAD softened -0.0043 while the EUR gained 0.0034

USDA made small changes in its estimates

The USDA maintains its undefeated title of unpredictable champion of the Ag world. Leading into this report the focus was certainly on corn and bean yield with added importance post the Sept stocks report.

The average trade guess was 167.5bu/ac which was lower than the Sept WASDE print of 168.2 bu/ac – the Oct report showed a print of 168.4bu/ac. Clearly bearish.

The USDA did feed in the changed beginning stocks numbers and slightly lowered acres so there was a moderate tightening of ending stocks but not the size the market was looking for.

In the bean pit the market was looking for 47.3bu/ac vs the Sept report of 47.9 bu/ac – the USDA estimated bean yield of 46.9bu/ac which pegged the ending stocks at 460mbu vs the trade estimate of 521mbu – bullish, but with the China negotiations hanging over the market’s head the move was tempered.

Wheat – Global moves included Australia production going from 19 million tonnes (Mt) to 18Mt, strangely Argy was left unchanged EU increased 1Mt to 152Mt.

With some other small changes global endings stocks increased from 286.51Mt to 287.80Mt – with 50.6pc of the stocks sitting in China.

From a US perspective ending stocks moved slightly higher – from 1014mbu to 1043mbu. The majority of this move was in HRW and White wheat. These small changes were not enough to provide any direction for wheat so it was left to follow corn.

Interesting Black Sea wheat values keep ticking higher, up another US$1.75/t yesterday.

Weather is the dominant market influence

While the trade was poring over the USDA latest guestimates the snow started falling … and falling hard. The updated maps indicate the US severe frost risk could shift from the Northwest to much of the North Central states.

Things start shifting gear on late Friday and into Saturday with the most severe weather to hit North Dakota and Minnesota which still has most of the harvest in front of it.

This is the dominant influence in the market – the USDA makes their best guess but, generally this information is backward looking – this doesn’t predict any potential damage from the upcoming storm which would be potentially magnified given the lateness of the crop.

Australia

Locally markets were a touch softer again within “trade land”, grower bids remained relatively unchanged on wheat with barley back a fraction across the boards.

Still very little grower selling.

Forecast has increased for Western Victoria 10-15mm on the 8 day, cool mild week throughout SA and VIC has benefited the crop at this time of the season.

As barley harvest gets underway the tug of war between the domestic market and the premium above export relativity has created uncertainty around price.

The most difficult balance sheet input remains the amount of hay that has been cut vs normal.

 

 

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