In the wheat pits, Chicago settled up 7.75 usc/bu closing at 482.25usc/bu, Kansas was 5.75 usc/bu higher to settle at 403.75usc/bu, while Minni rallied 7 usc/bu to go out at 503.75usc/bu. Corn gained 7.25 usc/bu to go out at 361.5usc/bu while Beans were up 14.25 usc/bu to settle at 872usc/bu WCE Canola softened -0.4 CAD/mt closing at 439.4CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing higher by 0.5 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones gained 73.92 points, Crude was down -0.43 bbl the Aussie was -0.000138 lower to settle at 0.68598, the CAD softened -0.0018 while the EUR fell -0.0003

Markets legged up again overnight based on a basket of reasons, with southern hemisphere-production concerns near the top of the list. With the USDA report out during Thursday’s session, some of the weaker shorts consider the “what if” seems unlikely in corn, given private estimates are gravitating towards the USDA, but this is a season without comparison. Beans will refer to conditions/positioning etc but it’s really all about China on two fronts: African Swine Fever and the trade bunfight. The underlying risk that there is a trade resolution is something to refer to when markets rally and a reason they break i.e. no-one knows. There was reference in some wires to China buying US goods ahead of the October meeting – very anecdotal and hard to measure. Thought piece: Ahead of the USDA report, it’s worth considering the “what if”. Yield ideas have been gravitating towards USDA’s last estimate which, if looking purely at conditions over the second half of the growing season seems more than reasonable. This level of comfort has enticed the short and largely removed the perception of upside risk – which could very well end up being correct. However, complacent markets make me nervous and this growing season is without comparison, specifically the beginning of the year.

On the weather front, it seems to be throwing a mixed bag, with temperatures in Western Australia up in the 30s Celsius range yesterday, and with much of the same forecast for the rest of the week. In eastern Australia, cold nights and mornings have featured in southern New South Wales.  Conditions have been relatively kind for the Victorian crop, with the forecast still predicting showers which will continue to secure yield in the bank. Domestic markets firmed again yesterday, and the inverse between old-crop and new-crop prices continues to narrow.