Markets

Daily Market Wire 12 April 2021

Lachstock Consulting, April 12, 2021

Friday’s post-WASDE wheat markets firmed, row crops and canola weakened.

  • Chicago wheat May contract up US10c/bu to 638.75c;
  • Kansas wheat May contract up 10c/bu to 586.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract up 13.75c/bu to 654c;
  • MATIF wheat May contract up €1/t to €212.75/t ;
  • Corn May contract down 2.5c/bu to 577.25c;
  • Soybeans May contract down 12.25c/bu to 1403c;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract down C$2.40/t to $811;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract down €2.25/t to €510.50/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.1 to 92.2;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.762;
  • CAD firmer at $1.254;
  • EUR weaker at $1.189;
  • ASX wheat May contract up $3/t to $284/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $1/t to $292/t.

International

Buy the rumour sell the fact on row crops on Friday with markets slipping off post WASDE report to see corn close down 2.5¢ and beans -12 1/4¢ (Matif -2.25€, Winnipeg -$2.4).  Wheat continued to firm though with Chicago and KC both up a dime, Minny +13 3/4¢, and Matif +1€ on the earlier close.  Macro markets had crude a quarter lower to $59.3 WTI / $62.9 Brent and the DOW up 297 points.

Coronavirus lockdowns are surging again globally with new restrictions in Argentina, parts of Colombia and potentially parts of India as the “third wave” continues to circle the world and as more concerns about some of the vaccines impact rollouts, the Johnson and Johnson single shot the latest to see restrictions in parts of the US.

WASDE report figures out on Friday had US corn stocks at 1.35 billion bushels (bbu) versus ideas around 1.4bbu with the USDA finally pencilling in higher exports.  The 1.35bbu figure compares with 1.5bbu projected in March.  Bean figures were mostly as expected at 119 million bushels (mbu).  US wheat stock also was as expected, 852 mbu, although world wheat stocks were cut sharply to 295.5 million tonnes (Mt) but all of which was done in China through increased feeding estimates.

With the last pre-new crop WASDE out of the way, markets will return to the ongoing debate about new crop acreage and crops.  So far, globally, the wheat situation is looking reasonable but there are still wide-ranging ideas about the mix of new crop bean/corn acres. It remains to be seen how markets will ration demand back to fill continually emerging Chinese needs.

China’s agriculture ministry on Friday forecast 2020/21 corn imports at 22Mt up 12Mt from previous forecast and called for steady domestic prices there. It compares with USDA’s 24Mt projection.

Drought concerns across the northern Plains of the US / southern parts of Canada remain topical for spring wheat and canola markets – although a storm moving across there is set to bring up to an inch+ of moisture to parts of south eastern Saskatchewan and North Dakota.

France’s AgriMer rated local wheat conditions 87 per cent good-to-excellent, barley 85pc, late last week. Those estimates were dated prior to a recent freeze event.

Increased political tensions in the Black Sea region have yet to directly impact the grain trade, but concerns about the potential for violence there are raising the spectre of delays/interference in new season grain exports.

Brazil continues to see light scattered moisture across the safrinha areas across the two-week forecasts, but the forecasts are not yet sufficient to ease concerns about the late-plant stress on crop yields.

Australia

Local markets remained fairly quiet to end the week, with a few localised demand needs still being bid up but overall low volume as we move into planting.  Logistics remain key across the east coast for any premiums being paid.

Great rains confirmed so far across SW WA, with upwards of 50 mm for some and a widespread inch or so across much of the central wheat belt with a little more forecast to fall early today before tapering off.

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