Daily Market Wire 12 April 2023

Lachstock Consulting, April 12, 2023

Market moves overnight were mixed and mostly less than one per cent.

  • Chicago wheat May 2023 contract down US4.5 cents per bushel to $674c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May 2023 contract down 7.75c/bu to 868.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May 2023 down 12.75c/bu to 862.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2023 up €1/t to €252.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat May 2023 down $0.25/t at $280/t;
  • Corn May 2023 contract down 3c/bu to 651c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2023 contract up 10c/bu to 1497.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract down C$4.70/t to $769.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract down €1/t to €460.50/t;
  • ASX May 2023 wheat contract unchanged at A$390/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract up $2.50/t to $394.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at A$332.20/t;
  • AUD dollar gained 12 points to US$0.6654


The International Monetary Fund in its World Economic Outlook report said fog around the world economic outlook had thickened, warning that an economic slowdown had become a greater risk for the global economy. A financial crisis could be averted, but it suggested that a hard landing, when economies around the world could tip into recession, had grown increasingly plausible. IMF cut its forecast for global growth this year to 2.8pc, from 2.9pc in January, compared to 3.4pc last year. 

India’s Food Secretary reported that 2023-24 wheat crop production was still projected at around 112.0Mt (compared to 107.7Mt last year). Weather had been favourable in some states including Uttar Predesh and Bihar and challenging in parts of Punjab and Haryana. 

CONAB Brazil reported that as at 8 Apr, the 2022-23 primary maize crop harvest was 51pc complete (48pc previous week, 57pc previous year). Safrinha crop planting was 99pc complete. Recent rainfall in Mato Grosso and Paraná was beneficial for crop development. Crops sown outside the ideal planting window in Minas Gerais and Tocantins were adversely affected by dryness. Soybean harvest was 78pc complete (75pc, 85pc) with yields in Mato Grosso reportedly good. While drought conditions had adversely affected crops in Rio Grande do Sul, yields in Paraná are better than initially forecast. 

According to Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry, as at 10 Apr, cumulative 2022-23 exports were 39.0Mt (45.4Mt previous year), including wheat at 13.3Mt (18.5Mt), barley at 2.3Mt (5.7Mt) and maize at 22.9Mt (20.7Mt).

Argentina has announced that its new agri-dollar scheme will apply to more than 50 regional products other than soybeans, including sorghum, barley and sunflowerseed, where the exchange rate of ARS300/USD will be offered to encourage sales. For soybeans and by-products, the programme will run until 31 May, while for other products, the scheme will be in place until 31 August.

Egypt’s GASC reportedly purchased 600,000t Russian milling wheat in its recent tender, at $275/t fob, for May shipment, with freight at $18-$19/t 

Japan’s MAFF reportedly purchased 78,732t milling wheat in its latest tender, including 15,470t US HRW, 12,360t US DNS (min. 14pc protein), 29,142t Canadian CWRS (min. 13.5pc) for Jun loading and 21,760t Australian ASW, for Aug loading


Local markets returned from the Easter long weekend with wheat bids down a buck or two. Canola bids were a touch firmer and remain a roller coaster. Barley found some support and bids were up a fraction on the back of China-Australia trade talks back on the table.

It was announced yesterday that the Australian government has paused its World Trade Organisation dispute with China over barley tariffs, allowing Beijing to conduct an expedited review of the tariffs over the next three to four months. The WTO case will resume if no agreement can be reached. It is considered to be a major breakthrough in the dispute, as it will enable a pathway forward but there are still no guarantees that the tariffs will be removed. 

The 8-day forecast map is a sea of green for SA, VIC and southern NSW with the autumn break now pretty much ideal for winter crops getting in the ground on time into a full moisture profile. 


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