Wheat firmed, canola weakened.
- Chicago wheat September contract up US4c/bu to 495c;
- Kansas wheat September contract up 2.75c/bu to 416.75c;
- Minneapolis wheat September contract up 2c/bu to 492.75c;
- Corn September contract up 1c/bu to 311.5c;
- Soybeans September contract up 0.5c to 870.5;
- Winnipeg canola November down C$4.50 to C$484;
- MATIF wheat September contract up €0.75 to €177.75;
- MATIF rapeseed November contract down €1.50/t to €373.50;
- Brent crude October contract down US$0.49 per barrel to $44.50;
- Dow Jones index down 105 points to 27,686;
- AUD weaker at $0.7150;
- CAD firmer at $1.331;
- EUR weaker at $1.174.
As it’s likely to dominate global news headlines for a little bit, we do note that US presidential candidate Biden’s pick for VP, while a moderate choice in some social aspects, is not so moderate on the economic side, calling for large tax increases and higher minimum wages. Market response has been relatively muted thus far, but many are cautious about the impacts if her ideas do gain more traction.
There was more discussion overnight about the weather impact to corn in Iowa after the recent storm. Many were happy to publish their estimates on losses or, more accurately, potential losses, with ideas ranging from a hundred million bushels (2.5 million tonnes) to nearly 1 billion bushels. We think it will tend towards the lower end. Comments to that extent are already starting to come out from the extension agent groups and the local ag secretary in Iowa noting that some of the damaged area will still make a crop, albeit with probable lower yield. Time will tell, and there will be questions raised about impacts to the USDA report either way. We also saw another two boats of China bean sales flashed, although after recent talk many had been hoping for more.
Egyptian buying agency, GASC, new tender saw two boats of Russian wheat sold, offered from the same company at levels that were ~$US7/t below the last tender, generally in line with market activity since then. Offers ranged on up from there though, with many hardly moving their level, apparently not overly keen to sell at these levels. Trade activity in the Black Sea is also reportedly slower on origination this week, with less interest to expand any longs until more demand shows up. Otherwise, we’re all looking towards tonight’s USDA report and all eyes are on corn. Some are noting that, unlike the bean flash activity, there hasn’t been any real corn market activity as Chinese markets came off their peak.
Markets remained quiet yesterday, new season grain values managed to hold mostly steady purely because no sellers were keen to drop offers. Volume actually traded is low. New season canola bids eased as crushers cut their bids. Showers are set to continue through today in WA and SA, and start moving in the east coast areas again into the weekend.
Source: Lachstock Consulting