International

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange noted that recent rains in Argentina brought relief to wheat growing areas in the east of the country, while crops in western regions continued to worsen due to drought. 2024-25 wheat condition ratings increased to 90pc fair/excellent (85pc previous year). Barley planting is complete on 1.3m ha, while low rainfall in key regions of southern La Pampa and Buenos Aires continue to limit crop growth. For the week ending 8 Aug, 2023-24 maize harvest was 96pc complete (81pc previous year). Harvest is now complete in northern areas, while high grain moisture is delaying final harvest in southern regions. 

FranceAgriMer reports that as at 5 Aug, the 2024-254 common wheat crop was rated 48pc good/excellent (50pc previous week, 77pc previous year), spring barley 65pc (66pc, 73pc) and maize 77pc (79pc, 85pc). Common wheat harvest was 88pc complete (86pc previous year, 91pc five-year avg), durum at 99pc (88pc, 100pc, 100pc), winter barley at 100pc (99pc, 100pc, 100pc) and spring barley at 74pc (54pc, 96pc, 92pc).  

France’s Ag Ministry revised downward its wheat production estimate by 3.33Mt to 26.32Mt, which would be the smallest crop since 1986. It remains above the estimates of Stratégie Grains and Argus Media, which are at 25.6Mt and 25.17Mt, respectively. 

Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, IKAR, revised upward its Russian wheat crop forecast by 600kt to 83.8Mt and 2024-25 wheat exports up by 500kt to 44.5Mt. Total grain production is now expected to reach 129.5Mt. 

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon cut its Russian wheat crop forecast by 1.8Mt to 82.9Mt, citing a combination of smaller area recently reported by Russia’s statistical agency and a lower yield projection. Crop estimates for the Southern, Central, and Siberian regions were each reduced by 700kt, while the Volga Valley crop was revised up 500kt. 

Two Argentine oilseed industry unions announced a one-day extension to their ongoing strike last week. The number of grain ships facing loading delays due to the strike had risen to 36 by midday last Thursday. 

Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC reportedly purchased 600-700kt of milling wheat in an international tender last week at around US$250.50/t to $252/t c&f for Sep/Oct shipment.

US private exporters reported sales of 132kt of soybeans to China during the 2024-25 marketing year, 100kt of soybean cake and meal to Colombia and 212kt of soybeans to unknown destinations (50kt 2023-24, 162kt 2024-25).

Australia

In local markets we saw a mostly unchanged close on the east coast last week. The ASX Jan 25 wheat contract ended the week down $1/t at $333/t. Consumers were a little more active in the old crop space and we also saw some new crop trading. Victorian and South Australian crops will be watched closely for new crop production potential now the days are getting longer. Rain that is forecast this week will keep potential alive.

The current 8-day forecast has 15-50mm on the radar for all winter cropping regions of NSW, Vic and southern Qld, while SA and WA are forecast to receive 10-25mm, very much needed as temperatures start to warm up.

SA’s Department of Primary Industries and Regions crop report released last week noted crop yield potential for this season will be highly dependent on spring rainfall, with well-below average rainfall recorded across many parts of SA during early winter. Seeding has been completed in all regions, but the absence of rain has resulted in delayed and, in many paddocks, uneven emergence. Total grain production was revised down 850kt to 7.7Mt, including wheat at 4.29Mt (4.89Mt previous year, 5.02Mt avg), barley at 1.92Mt (2.23Mt, 2.42Mt) and canola at 409kt (518kt, 504kt).