Daily Market Wire 12 December 2022

Lachstock Consulting, December 12, 2022

Global wheat eased about 1pc while the ASX eastern wheat gained about 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat March 2023 contract down US12 cents per bushel to 734.25/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March 2023 contract down 11.75c/bu at 833c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March 2023 contract down 8c/bu to 901.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2023 contract down €4.50/t to  €302.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract unchanged at $317.75/t;
  • Corn March 2023 contract up 1.5c/bu to 644c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract down 2c/bu to 1488.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was down C$0.20/t to $860.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €5.75/t to €565.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract settlement up A$7/t to $393/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$310/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.680.


The USDA released its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on Friday; it was viewed as neutral for US domestic corn, soybeans, and wheat, and global estimates were viewed as slightly bullish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat.

The global wheat outlook was for reduced supplies, lower consumption, increased trade, and reduced stocks. Supplies were lowered 2.1 million tonnes (Mt) on reduced production for Argentina and Canada that is only partly offset by higher Australian production. USDA cut its estimate for Argentina by 3Mt to 12.5Mt, and Canada fell 1.2Mt to 33.8Mt. Australia was revised up by 2.1Mt to 36.6Mt and Russia was left at 91Mt, well below other estimates. Russian wheat exports were revised up 1Mt to 43Mt and Ukraine up by 1.5Mt to 12.5Mt. EU exports were revised up 1Mt to 36Mt, and Australian exports were upped 1.5Mt to 27.5Mt.

For corn – US ending stocks were revised up to 1.257 billion vs market expectations of 1.238 reflecting a downward revision for exports. The report noted that competition from other exporters and relatively high US prices have resulted in slow sales and shipments through early December.

Global corn corn production was lowered with forecast declines for Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Vietnam. Ukraine corn production is sharply lower with reductions to both area and yield as the ongoing conflict and record-setting autumn rainfall have delayed the harvest in key producing regions. Brazilian corn production was left unchanged at a record at 126Mt and Argentina at 55Mt, higher than other estimates, while EU production was revised down 600,000t to 54.2Mt. Ukraine exports were revised up 2Mt to 17.5Mt, EU imports were upped 1.5Mt to 21.5Mt and Chinese imports were unchanged at 18Mt.

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that for the week ending December 6, Argentina’s 2022-23 wheat harvest was 42pc versus 23pc in the previous week, and 53pc at this time last year. Conditions were rated at 52pc fair to excellent vs 49pc in the previous week, 97pc in the previous year, with yields seen around 30pc below average because of dryness throughout the growing season and the impact of late frosts.  Maize planting was 33pc complete vs 25pc and 40pc, with conditions rated 74pc fair to excellent vs 75pc and 100pc. Unfavourable conditions were beginning to affect crop quality in Santa Fe and Entre Rios, while recent rains maintained crop prospects in southern regions. Rainfall over the past week allowed fieldwork to progress north and west of Buenos Aires. However, hot and dry conditions over recent weeks continued to delay the start of sowing in the northeast and north-west of the country, where farmers hoped to commence planting from mid-December

In Brazil, Conab has reduced yield estimates for the first full-season maize crop, with production cut by 600,000t from the November forecast to 125.8Mt. The soybean production forecast was trimmed fractionally from November by a slight cut to yield prospects.

Egypt’s GASC is understood to have purchased 260,000t of milling wheat from Russia at US$354/t c&f, for December-January shipment via private transactions.


Local cash markets rounded out the week lower overall as harvest pace ramped up. Some rain in parts of Victoria, South Australia and New South Wales slowed progress for some growers.

Further rainfall has been forecast for today across parts of NSW and Victoria will create further delays, but the rest of this week is forecast to be dry.


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