Markets

Daily Market Wire 12 February 2024

Lachstock Consulting, February 12, 2024

MATIF wheat firmed 2 percent. Chicago firmed 1pc. Most other markets eased.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat up US8.25c/bu to 596.75c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat up 0.5c/bu to 601.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat up 0.5c/bu to 684.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 up €4.25/t to €209.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 down 3.5c/bu to 441.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 9.75c/bu to 1190c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$7.50/t to C$596.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €5.50/t to €418/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat up A$2.50/t to $358.50/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 32 points to US$0.6524

International

SovEcon reports that Russian wheat stocks (on-farm and off-farm – excluding small companies) as of 1 January reached a record 36.5Mt, up 1pc from last year, reflecting relatively sluggish exports in the recent months. SovEcon estimates that Russia exported 10.4Mt of wheat from Nov-Jan compared to 12.3Mt over the same period last year, noting that exports slowed due to government efforts to regulate wheat prices. 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that for the week ending 7 Feb, 2023-24 soybean crops deteriorated due to above-average temps and limited rain in core areas, with the crop rated at 78pc fair/excellent, down from 86pc the previous week (56pc previous year). Recent high temps are likely to have led to a reduction in maize yield potential in some areas, currently rated at 85pc fair/excellent, down from 89pc the week before (66pc previous year). Sunflower seed harvest is 12pc complete, with conditions rated at 93pc fair/excellent (91pc previous week, 74pc previous year). Recent rains in southern growing areas were deemed favourable and were likely to have prevented further deterioration. 

Brazil’s Conab have cut 2023-24 maize production by 3.9Mt, to 113.7Mt (131.9Mt previous year), including first (full season) production by 0.8Mt, to 23.6Mt (27.4Mt) and secondary (safrinha) by 3.1Mt to 88.1Mt (102.4Mt). Exports were cut by 3.0Mt, to 32.0Mt (55.5Mt). 2024-25 wheat production was forecast at 10.2Mt, up from 8.1Mt in 2023-24. 

Canadian Grain Commission data shows that for the week ending 4 Feb cumulative 2023-24 all wheat exports at 12.5Mt were down 4pc from previous year, including durum at 1.6Mt (-42pc) and other wheat at 10.9Mt (+6pc). Barley exports are at 1.0Mt (-45pc) and canola 3.0Mt (-33pc). 

Tunisia’s state grains agency reportedly purchased 100kt of durum from optional origins in an international tender, at US$414.68/t, $417.42/t c&f, for Mar/Apr shipment.

Australia

Eastern wheat markets relaxed into the weekend, with the track market slipping A$2-3/t depending on site. ASX March 24 wheat finished the week at $358/t, down almost $10/t for the week. Local canola values followed the offshore bounce in crude, which flowed through to be supportive of Winnipeg and Matif, but grower selling is still slow.

The 8-day forecast has more rain on the way for Qld, with a widespread 10-50mm expected across CQ and southern Qld. Northeast and southeast NSW is looking at 10-25mm, with central and southern expecting 5-15mm. Eastern Vic has less than 10mm on the forecast, while western Vic, SA and WA are all tipped for a dry week.

Fall armyworm is being reported at unprecedented levels across Central Queensland, the Western and Darling Downs and northern New South Wales, causing significant damage to sorghum crops. The late plant is thought to be one of the reasons for the increased activity, with significant rainfall allowing populations to thrive.

 

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