Markets

Daily Market Wire 12 January 2024

Lachstock Consulting, January 12, 2024

Wheat futures eased.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat down 7c/bu to US603.75c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat down 8.5c/bu to 616c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat down 7.75c/bu to 700c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 down €3.25/t to €218.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 down 1.75c/bu to 469.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 0.5c/bu to 1248c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$2.40/t to C$630/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €0.25/t to €428/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat down A$4/t to $364/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley down A$1.50/t to $306/t;
  • AUD dollar down 12 points to US$0.6688.

International

The International Grains Council (IGC) has revised up to record 1230 million tonnes (Mt) its 2023-24 global corn production forecast, mainly driven by an upward revision for China. China’s corn crop, seen at 288.8Mt, was up from 280.6Mt in November. The corn crop in Russia was revised up 1Mt to 17Mt and Ukraine up 1.2Mt to 30Mt. These revisions were partially offset by 4.3Mt cut for Brazil, now pegged at 119.7Mt.

IGC also increased its 2023-24 world wheat production by 1Mt to 788Mt, with upward revisions for Australia (+1.1Mt), Canada (+2.2Mt) and Argentina (+0.3Mt) partially offset by a 1.5Mt cut to Brazil. 

Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange revised up its 2023-24 corn production estimate by 3Mt to a record 59Mt reflecting above average yields. Recent rainfall was beneficial to crops in the western region of the Pampas, although storms and hail were noted in Cordoba which adversely impacted fields. 2023-24 soybean production was revised up 2Mt, to 52Mt with favourable rainfall in western regions improving soil moisture levels, and more than offsetting the impact of dry conditions in Chaco province. Rainfall hampered wheat harvesting progress in Buenos Aires, forecast unchanged at 14.5Mt. 

Romania’s Constanta port authority reported 2023 grain exports reached a record 36Mt, up 50pc from the previous year, reflecting a surge in shipments from Ukraine. 

Japan’s MAFF purchased 89,260t milling wheat in its regular tender, including 10,845t WW wheat, 17,235t DNS (min. 14pc protein), 29,350t HRW and 31,830t CWRS (min. 13.5pc) wheat from Canada, for Feb/Mar shipment. 

Algeria’s state grains agency reportedly purchased an unspecified volume of durum, likely from Canada, Mexico and Australia at around US$450-$475/t, Feb/Mar shipment. 

Thai importers reportedly purchased 65kt of feed wheat from optional origins, at an estimated $264/t c&f for March shipment. 

Tunisia’s state grains agency reportedly purchased 50,000t durum from optional origins, at $447/t to $449/t c&f, for Jan/Feb shipment and 50,000t feed barley from optional origins, at $242-$243/t c&f, Feb shipment. 

US private exporters reported sales of 175kt of corn to Mexico during the 2023-24 marketing year.

Australia

Local markets saw some slight improvements for oilseeds across the board yesterday as the offshore rally was mostly passed on by the consumer and some trade shorts. Cereals were also slightly warmer but, overall, the consumers are currently feeling comfortable as the crop dribbles out to them without a strong presence from the export bid.  

The 8-day forecast has a widespread 10-25mm for QLD, NSW and eastern VIC with higher totals of 25-50mm for CQ and southeast NSW. Western VIC has less than 10mm on the 8-day outlook. Temperatures have been close to average across summer cropping regions over the past week, with crops generally in very good condition.

 

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