Markets

Daily Market Wire 12 July 2021

Lachstock Consulting, July 12, 2021

Canola futures book limit-up gains. One per cent gains in spring wheat, HRW and ASX wheat. SRW and French settled lower.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US3c/bu to 615c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 6c/bu to 594c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 9.25c/bu to 814.25c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €2.5/t to €197.25/t;
  • Corn September contract was down 7.25c/bu to 529.5c;
  • Soybeans September contract up 12.75c/bu to 1338.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was up C$30/t limit to $844;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract up €8.50/t to €527.25/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.3 to 92.1;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.748;
  • CAD firmer at $1.245;
  • EUR firmer at $1.188;
  • ASX wheat July contract up $6/t to $297/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $2/t to $298/t.

International

USDA next crop production and WASDE reports will publish tonight.

Mixed markets to end last week in the last full trading day ahead of the July reports. Wheat was down three cents on Chicago, up six cents on KC, +9 1/4¢ Minny, and -2.5€ on the earlier close for Matif. Corn was down 7 1/4¢ and beans +12 3/4¢ (Matif +8.5€, Winnipeg +$30).  Macro markets have crude oil back up to $74.9 WTI / $75.8 Brent and the DOW gained 448 points to set another record.  The AUD has firmed to 74.9¢, the CAD $1.245, and the EUR $1.187 with the USD at 92.2

Weather markets remain focused on US corn belt rains. Weather maps still predicting a widespread 1.5-2″ event across almost the entire central Corn Belt, tapering off slightly to the west into Nebraska and the Dakotas but stretching across Iowa through the eastern edge of Ohio.

For tonight’s July WASDE, surveyed ideas for corn yields are largely about 178 bu/acre (vs USDA June 179.5), beans slightly over 50 (vs 50.8 June USDA). Corn carry-out stocks are in the low 1 billion range, beans 125-150 mbu range. In the meantime, markets have ventured back into risk-off mode as we head into the report.

The US government intends to bring more investigations into anti-competitive activity by stockyards.

US export sales were out a day late last week. Wheat exports were 0.291 million tonnes (Mt), corn 0.2Mt new crop and beans 0.1Mt also new crop. All were on the low end of expectations. Friday also saw another bean flash; O.28Mt sold to Mexico.

Rains to end last week across parts southern Canada and western North Dakota saw, in general, half an inch to two inches, slightly higher for some. Markets are still debating how much of the wheat crop this has benefited given the previous drought stress accelerating crop development into early/aborted heading.

Leading into tonight’s WASDE report, the USDA attaché in Argentina cut the local office crop estimate for soybeans to 44.5Mt which is now 2.5Mt below the previous USDA WASDE estimate.

The ongoing drought in Kazakhstan has started to make headlines with the government, as it looks for ways to ease drought impacts on local farmers, firing the agriculture minister Saparhan Omarov.

Australia

Markets were mostly steady to end last week, with some of the near-term demand shorts looking to be covered and new crop still tracking around on global movements.

Forecast rains for WA have mostly come at or above expectations, with even a few areas of flood impacts.  Soil moisture profiles very nicely filling up.

Extended runs maps have taken a slight swing back on the dry side, with little moisture forecast out into the end of the month after the recent storms.

 

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