International

Egypt’s GASC is believed to have purchased at tender yesterday a total of 400kt of wheat from Romania (180kt), Bulgaria (100kt) and Ukraine (120kt) at US$264.95/t-$269.95/t. Russian wheat was reportedly not competitive. 

The Russian Ag Ministry has met with grains exporters, where it was unanimously agreed that a halt to Turkish imports would not negatively impact Russian grain export potential. Total grain exports in 2024-25 (Jul/Jun) seen at 60Mt, with the focus being on markets in Near East Asia and North Africa, together with the development of relationships with India and China. 

Black Sea market analyst SoveEcon expects Russia’s June wheat exports to reach 3.8Mt (4.4Mt May), barley 0.3Mt (0.5Mt) and maize 0.4Mt (0.6Mt). 

European agricultural trade association Coceral pegged 2024-25 total EU grains production at 275.1Mt (270.8Mt previous year), including common wheat at 122.6Mt (126Mt), durum at 7.3Mt (7.3Mt), barley at 52.2Mt (47.5Mt), maize at 64.8Mt (63.8Mt). Its oilseeds estimates included 18.5Mt rapeseed, (20.2Mt), and 10.5Mt sunflower seed (10.4Mt). UK common wheat production was seen at 11.8Mt (13.9Mt), barley at 7.7Mt (6.9Mt) and rapeseed at 0.9Mt (1.2Mt).

National agricultural agency Conab reported at 9 June that Brazil’s 2023-24 soybean harvest was complete, first (full-season) maize harvest 85pc complete (85pc previous year) and safrinha crop harvest 8pc complete (2pc). Results in Mato Grosso have confirmed decent productivity levels, but with reduced precipitation seen as a threat to crops in the grain-filling stage in parts of Paraná state. In Goiás, early harvest results suggest that yields are good. 2024-25 wheat seeding was 47pc complete (47pc), with dry weather in Paraná allowing for good progress. 

South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn crop estimate by 2Mt to 114Mt. Despite having the view for several weeks that his corn estimate was too low, Dr Cordonnier had hesitated to increase it while much of central Brazil was experiencing dry weather. Now that 10pc of the corn has been harvested and the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) has increased the corn yield estimate for Mato Grosso he decided to increase the corn estimate. 

A group of South Korean flour millers reportedly purchased 50kt of milling wheat from the US, including soft white wheat (9.5pc-11.0pc) in the mid-US$240s per tonne fob, HRW (11.5pc) in the low-$260s fob and DNS (14.0pc) in the low-$280s fob. Separately, buyers passed on an event to take 40kt from Canada due to high prices.

US private exporters reported sales of 104kt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023-24 marketing year. 

Australia

It was a quiet opening to the week yesterday after the long weekend, with local markets largely tracking sideways. The bid-offer spread is currently wide and therefore grower liquidity is low, with the market hard to define. The ASX Jan 25 contract ended the day down A$5/t at $375/t. Despite weekend rainfall in WA saving the day for many, the ongoing dry in SA is becoming a real issue and western Vic is also running out of time to turn things around to catch up on production potential.

Weekly line ups data shows there is currently 2.37Mt of total grain on the stem for June. Wheat is sitting at 1.13Mt, barley at 661kt, canola is at 476kt and sorghum is at 107kt. Port congestion was mixed this week with some improvements and some blow outs. The average wait time is less than 8 days with 9 vessels anchored and 5 loading at Australian grain ports.