Markets

Daily Market Wire 12 March 2021

Lachstock Consulting, March 12, 2021

Crude oil firmed US$1.50/barrel to $66.0 WTI / $69.6 Brent and the DOW gained 272 points.  The USD continued slipping.

  • Chicago wheat May contract down US10c/bu to 642.5c;
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 12.25c/bu to 604.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract down 7.25c/bu to 632c;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €3/t to €224.50;
  • Corn May contract up 4.5c/bu to 538.5c;
  • Soybeans May contract up 3.75c/bu to 1413.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract up C$24.80/t to $801.50;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €9.75/t to €519;
  • US dollar index down 0.4 to 91.4;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.779;
  • CAD firmer at $1.254;
  • EUR firmer at $1.198;
  • ASX wheat May contract down A$2.50/t to $296;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $1/t to $307.

International

With the new US stimulus bill now in play, the European Central Bank announced that it will be increasing its bond buying program to try and keep pressure on lending costs there – in a direct recognition of the ongoing challenges in the economic recovery with what appears to be a double dip recession there.

We’re two and a half weeks from the USDA’s much anticipated prospective plantings report and market ideas are still shifting. There’s more talk this week about shifts back to beans for the lower cost outlay.  At the same time the gradual draw-down in the corn board inverse, K/Z (the premium of May futures over December) dropping nearly fifty cents in the last month, has started pushing up flat-price new crop values for corn even as corn/bean spreads have held more steady.

There was confirmation of anti-dumping duties by the US International Trade Commission on phosphate imports from Morocco/Russia last night. While not something US farmers will appreciate, it’s of little impact elsewhere in the global ag sector.

Regular US weekly export sales figures were mixed. Wheat 0.33 million tonnes (Mt) and bean 0.35Mt figures were strong, but corn was weaker at just under 0.4Mt.  New business of 30,000t old crop soybeans to China plus a boat of unknown destination switched to China, but the weekly sales figures were nothing like as large as rumoured amid reports of Chinese buyers shopping for prompt cargoes following Brazilian harvest delays.  Milo sales had a new Chinese old crop boat in the mix, plus a new crop sale, following the previous week’s Chinese old crop cancellation.

Egypt’s GASC tender last night saw them book six boats at a US$297/t C&F, all Romanian.  Lachstock estimates that’d indicatively be $4-5/t discount on the FOB markets vs earlier this week, given that with better payment terms the GASC costings would be lower this time.  Russian-origin offers were $5/t or so higher, plus the extra couple bucks in freight. But freight values in general were much more “normal” than we’ve seen in recent weeks in Australia.

Russian wheat crops are said to be around 80 per cent in good condition as they start to come out of dormancy

Brazil’s CONAB pushed their safrinha corn crop estimate up again to 82.8Mt.  Planting there on the second crop corn has been pushing along, but as has been the case in recent weeks remains very lagged with the delayed harvest on beans and wet conditions.

Extended-run Argentine weather maps are still filling in more of this possible rain event into the two week outlooks, a fairly widespread inch possible.  At the same time though, the current hot/dry conditions have been stressing crops and more local estimates have been cut again this week.

Forecast maps across the central US are still pushing 2-3″+ of moisture into the weekend with most of the Hard Red Winter wheat belt set to catch the precipitation, raising hopes about improved crop conditions with the reduced drought stress.

Daylight saving time will commence this weekend in Chicago, which will push market opening and closing time forward relative to Australian time.

Australia

Australian wheat markets were bid $1-2/t lower but offers held firm and little traded on the east coast.  WA did see some bids firm on ASW though, with volumes moving later in the day.

Canola markets have remained on a bull run with both old and new crop demand. New crop delivered markets saw some interest as east coast crush bids pushed towards $630/t January 2022 delivery.

This rain event on the east coast is still holding on firmly for the weekend with a widespread 20-30+ mm again across northern NSW.

SA rains came in better than forecast with the Eyre Peninsula yesterday receiving 10-20mm across a fair chunk of country.

BOM updated extended outlook maps yesterday. April and May projections are holding that drier/neutral bias but these are normally only accurate for Vic/eastern SA at this point in the year.

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