Markets

Daily Market Wire 12 March 2024

Lachstock Consulting, March 12, 2024

Wheat prices and rapeseed gained more than one percent.

  • Chicago May 2024 wheat up US9.5c/bu to 547.25c/bu;
  • Kansas May 2024 wheat up 10c/bu to 598.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis May 2024 wheat up 7.25c/bu to 670c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2024 up €3.25/t to €196.75/t;
  • Corn May 2024 up 2c/bu to 441.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 4.75c/bu to 1179.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$6.10/t to $615.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €7.50/t to €430.75/t;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat up A$0.50/t to $313.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 wheat up A$2/t to $318.50/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$295/t;
  • AUD dollar down 12 points to US$0.6614.

 

International

The March WASDE was a bit of a non-event. Overall the report was considered neutral to slightly bearish. The US corn and soybean balance sheets were left unchanged from February. There were several small changes to global corn numbers resulting in slightly lower world ending stocks (319.6Mt) compared to the pre report expectation of 320.7Mt. Brazil corn was left unchanged, now 10Mt higher than Conab. Brazil soybean was revised down by 1Mt against expectations of a 3.5Mt cut and is now pegged at 155Mt (Conab 149.5Mt). The USDA revised US wheat ending stocks up to 673 million bushels (Mb) from 658Mb in Feb (657Mb expected). The supply increase came on lower exports split between HRW, SRW, and DUR. There were several changes made to world numbers which resulted in world ending stocks of 258.8Mt (-0.6Mt) which was close to expectations. Australian and Russian production were revised up by 0.5Mt to 26Mt and 91.5Mt respectively. Argentine production was revised up 0.4Mt to 15.9Mt, while EU production was cut 0.35Mt to 133.65Mt. EU and China imports were cut by 1Mt each and Australian and Ukraine exports were revised up 0.5Mt to 20Mt and 1Mt to 16Mt.

According to Statistics Canada, Canadian farmers expect to plant more wheat, corn, oats, lentils and dry peas in 2024, while area seeded to canola, soybeans and barley are expected to fall. Wheat area is pegged at 27 million acres up marginally from 2023. Canola area is expected to decrease 3pc from 2023 to 21.4 million acres, roughly in line with the five-year average. It noted that the decline in seeded area may have been driven by lower prices, in addition to other concerns including soil moisture in Western Canada. Barley area is expected to fall 2.5pc to 7.1 million acres because of lower exports and strong competition from other crops.

IKAR agriculture consultancy reported that April fob 12.5pc protein Russian wheat was quoted US$198/t, down $5/t from the previous week.

After a cancellation last week, US private exporters reported the cancellations of another 110kt of soft red winter wheat to China on Saturday and another 264kt yesterday. 

Australia

Local markets found a little strength to end last week. The ASX May eastern Australia wheat contract closed up $2/t at $318.50/t but values were down overall for the week. The local market was feeling the weight, as offshore values moved lower and a firmer AUD put further pressure on values. We are still seeing some limited grower selling at current values.

Rainfall totals for the week ending 11 March were a little disappointing across most of WA cropping region with the rainfall band pushing further east, missing most cropping areas, with totals less than 15mm. There is another promising week on the forecast with 10-25mm expected across WA, while the eastern states are in for another relatively dry week.

 

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