Weather: Dryness concerns continue to build across the southern US Plains with forecasts calling for above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation. While there is still time for the HRW crop to recover, the lack of moisture is beginning to spark yield discussions and remains a watchpoint for wheat markets.
Markets: Grain markets saw a modest recovery overnight following a volatile start to the week, with price direction continuing to be heavily influenced by crude oil and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is raising concerns around energy and fertiliser supply chains, helping keep oil markets supported despite coordinated efforts to release strategic reserves.
Across broader markets, stronger energy prices, higher bond yields and a firmer US dollar weighed on equities while inflation data came broadly in line with expectations. Commodity markets were mixed overall, though energy remained the standout. For agriculture, outside macro drivers continue to dominate price direction, with recent moves across grains and oilseeds reflecting geopolitical and energy market developments more than underlying crop fundamentals.
Day Ahead – Australia
Expect the local market to remain relatively supported today given the firmer offshore tone and ongoing macro uncertainty. Canola should stay underpinned by strength in energy and veg-oil markets, while barley continues to draw support from export demand. Freight rates a big talking point which has essentially erased gains on recent rally from an ex-farm perspective.

Global wheat:  Chicago wheat +3.75c, Kansas +4.75c and Minneapolis +3c overnight, while Matif wheat gained €2 and Russian cash values lifted to around $239/t.
Markets paused after a volatile start to the week, with crude oil and the Iran conflict continuing to dominate direction.

Dryness concerns persist in the southern US Plains with above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall forecast, keeping HRW yield risks on the radar.

ETF interest in wheat has picked up, with Teucrium’s WEAT fund adding roughly 1,700 futures contracts over the past week.

Russia’s March wheat exports are forecast around 3.7mmt, well above last year and the five-year average, keeping strong Black Sea competition in the market.

Other grains and oilseeds: Corn firmed on concerns around lower US acreage as high fertiliser prices and strong soybean returns influence planting decisions.
Argentina is now the cheapest FOB origin into Asia, slipping just below the PNW as global competition intensifies.

Soybeans pushed higher with strong gains in soy oil driven by biofuel policy speculation and strength in energy markets.

Palm oil futures rose 1.6% overnight supported by stronger soy oil and rebounding crude oil prices.

Brazil’s soybean harvest is around halfway complete with a record crop expected, keeping global supply ample.

Fertiliser supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict are adding uncertainty around planting costs and acreage decisions.

Macro: The Iran conflict continues to dominate markets with disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz threatening global energy and fertiliser supply chains.
Crude oil pushed higher despite the IEA agreeing to release up to 400m barrels from emergency reserves and the US signalling a drawdown of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

LNG exports from Qatar and parts of the Middle East have been disrupted, sending Asian gas prices sharply higher.

US CPI rose 0.3% m/m in February while core CPI rose 0.2%, broadly in line with expectations.

Bond yields rose and the USD strengthened overnight as higher energy prices kept inflation concerns elevated.

Local: Softer in the west yesterday, with canola bid at A$745/t, wheat $324 and barley $327 FIS Albany.
Through the east, canola was $700, wheat $322 and barley $308 track Geelong.
Freight remains difficult to pin down, with most quotes sitting around 14–18c/km for medium- to long-haul moves, up from 11.5–13c/km prior to the conflict. While delivered prices have ground higher, much of that gain has effectively been offset by the lift in freight.
Some models suggesting another system pushing in from the north, with the potential to bring useful falls across SA, Vic and NSW. That would help maintain or build moisture profiles, although it could make spraying more difficult in the short term.