International

Every year this period tests the market’s resolve and overnight market pre-WASDE fun and games show that this year is no exception.

Crops are either being made or being planted and this year we get a huge war-affected supply chain skew. Tomorrow’s numbers are super important, not least of which is the HRW production number. The USDA will have its first crack at new crop by class wheat estimates and the range of pre-report predictions is massive; 600mbu is the line with more and more estimates dropping south of this line. All corn ending stocks for new crop range from 988mbu vs a high of 1.65bbu – i.e feast or famine

Europe is a watch, weather wise.  There is dryness spreading from France eastwards. The back-end forecast is showing some relief but something to keep an eye on.

The hall mark of any rally is consumptive support. Fresh consumptive enquiry is coming to the front of the line every day. The key to how export flow plays out for shipment months Aug, Sep and Oct, which was dominated by Russia and Ukraine, this year will be determined by price direction. Clearly Ukraine will struggle but the ability of the Russians to get what will be a massive crop to market is still a potential relief.

Australia

Current crop markets continued to strengthen yesterday. The latest rainfall event in the north continues to pressure on deliveries into domestic and export pathways and the flow-on effect is also impacting markets in the south where wheat and barley prices were all up another $5-10/t. Eastern Australian barley is hard to get. Growers remain focused on finishing seeding programs.

The local depot liquidity finds demand with buyers stepping in with approx 31,000t trading on the Clear Grain Exchange platform, however the question remains when the trade can get access to those depot stocks and truck availability to move into destinations. New crop wheat markets were $5-10/t firmer while basis remains at minus $130-140/mt level. Canola markets were relatively unchanged.

There are increasing reports of high mouse numbers across the eastern states as well as significant numbers being reported in WA. Although numbers are expected to plateau as we head into winter, growers are being urged to monitor for mice and bait to try to prevent a population boom in spring.

The current rainfall event is compounding problems with the already soggy start to the season and is starting to cause some real headaches for winter crop planting in southern Queensland and central and northern NSW. Reports of burst seed are common and there is a real likelihood that some area will not get in with the preference to wait until summer crop plant. Although there is still time to get a winter crop in, it is going to take a couple of weeks for paddocks to dry out for some.

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