More markets eased than gained overnight, the US winter wheats led downwards by almost 2 percent. The US dollar index gained a little and the Australian dollar eased one percent.
- Chicago wheat December 2023 contract down US12.75 cents per bushel to 656.25c/bu;
- Kansas wheat December 2023 down 14.75c/bu to 818.5c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat December 2023 down 11.75c/bu to 843.25c/bu;
- MATIF wheat December 2023 down €0.25/t to €236.25/t;
- Black Sea wheat December 2023 up US$0.25/t to $278/t;
- Corn July 2023 contract down US11.75 c/bu to 582.25c/bu;
- Soybeans July 2023 contract up 1c/bu to 1405.5c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola July 2023 contract down C$10.60/t to $724.10/t;
- MATIF rapeseed August 2023 down €10.75 to €425/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat contract up A$1/t to $381/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at $317.80/t;
- AUD dollar down 78 points to US$0.6702
The export corridor is still in limbo without an agreement being reached. It’s classic rhetoric because Turkiye claimed the talks have been “positive and constructive”, Russia repeated the warning that unless their needs around food and fertiliser are met they will walk away from the table and the corridor will shut. Ukraine is clearly pushing hard to get the deal done, which makes sense given the recent restrictions from neighbouring countries on cheap Ukrainian exports. From a freight perspective, the market is watching closely as a deal or no deal can have a significant impact on whether a ship owner decides to send vessels into Black Sea ports and whether existing insurance coverage remains valid.
Stratégie Grain tickled up its 2023-24 EU wheat forecast by 1.1 million tonnes (Mt) to 130Mt.
The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its Argentine soybean crop by 1.5Mt which would be the smallest crop since 1999; it also flagged that wheat area will be negatively impacted by the drought.
The USDA will publish its May US crop estimates tonight. HRW crop size will be one of the main numbers to watch, with the average guess coming in at 11 percent up on last year.
Chinese food inflation dropped to 0.4pc, a 13-month low, driven by cheaper pork and vegetables. This adds to the list of negative data out of China; its producer price index is down 3.6pc compared with April 2022, and marks the seventh straight month of factory-gate deflation.
Local markets were sluggish yesterday. Wheat bids were again a touch softer across the board on both old and new crop. Barley and canola values were also a touch softer but there were low volumes of liquidity on offer to meet any markets.
No useful rain is forecast for the next 8-10 days. Scattered showers are on the cards for most of the cropping regions, but nothing to tip the gauge. The Victorian Mallee and northern New South Wales are among the regions looking for that next top-up event.
Planting progress continues to be in full swing, with reports of growers in Victoria coming to the finish line with another good 5-7 days to go.
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