Daily Market Wire 12 October 2023

Lachstock Consulting, October 12, 2023

Markets closed lower.

  • Chicago wheat December down US2.5c/bu to 556c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December down 4c/bu to 667.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December down 5.25c/bu to 718.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December down €3.50/t to €231/t;
  • Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December up 2.5c/bu to 488c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 14c/bu to 1298c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November down C$1.90/t to C$702.70/t;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$4.10/t to $717/t
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2023 down €8.25/t to €411.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €6.75/t to €437.75/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat down A$8/t to $399/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley down A$3.50/t to $345/t;
  • AUD dollar down 18 points to US$0.6414


Brazil’s Conab released its first full outlook for 2023-24, with total maize production forecast at 119.4Mt (132Mt in 2022-23), this is 0.4Mt lower than the September Perspectives for Agriculture report, reflecting a nearly 1mha pull back in area. 

The Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development crop report, noted that for the week ending 10 October, fieldwork was limited owing to rainfall across the province hampering progress. Spring wheat harvest was 99pc complete (93pc previous year), canola was 87pc complete (79pc) and maize at 7pc (2pc). Spring wheat yields ranged from 2.4t/ha to 5.4t/ha, with protein levels seen at 13.5pc and higher, and barley yields from 3.8t/ha to 5.4t/ha. The 2024-25 winter wheat and rye crops have started to emerge, with recent rains deemed beneficial for crop establishment. 

A flood of cheap sunflower oil from Russia and Ukraine is reportedly putting downward pressure on palm oil prices as both countries take advantage of currency depreciation to take a larger share of the edible oils market. 

US private exporters announced 121kt of soybeans sales for delivery to China during the 2023-24 marketing year and 213kt to unknown destinations. 

Egypt’s GASC is seeking wheat from all origins in an international tender today, for 1-15 Dec and/or 15-30 Dec shipment, with offers to be submitted on FOB basis.


Local markets softened further over the day yesterday as harvest continues to gather steam. The ASX eastern Australia Jan wheat contract ended the day down A$8/t at A$399/t. 

Feed barley got taken to the sword in Vic yesterday; GIAV tour may have something do with the weakness. The fact headers are starting to roll or just a lack of bids as the trade sits back and waits to see how far the grower will follow values down. Given how supply chain costs look versus the last trade into China, current values represent some value for the exporter. Saudi however would still be below replacement. WA production estimates are on the slide with close to zero rainfall forecast for the next 15 days with heat also smashing in. 

Showers are expected to bring 5-25mm of rain to southern and eastern Vic today and tomorrow, with lower totals of less than 10mm forecast to push up into parts of southern NSW. Eastern SA can also expect some showers today but the totals are not expected to amount to much. All other cropping regions are looking at a dry week which will be welcome for areas in the thick of harvest. It has been a cool week across the eastern states with temps 2-4° below average but it has been hot and dry in WA with temps 4-8° above average.


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