Weather: US weather is continuing its 3 bears type year – far too wet in the eastern corn belt, far too dry in western HRW belt and largely just right through the middle. Social media is starting to fill up with failed crops in western KS – nothing new for that part of the world.
Nothing still for NNSW and southern Qld.

Markets

A weekend seems like a long time for the US and Iran to trade missiles and comments. The fact the US is blocking the Strait is another key escalation, aimed at financially hurting Iran – but its another step further away from a resolution.
Ag markets have, once again, remained largely agnostic to the barrage of Tweets – more importance is on the weather at the moment.
Trump is still scheduled to meet Xi in Beijing on May 14 and 15th but, given he postponed the last meeting due to the conflict makes this meeting in doubt.

Day Ahead – Australia

Expect local markets to start the week unchanged to slightly firmer as we wait to see what the latest twist in the conflict brings globally. Northern markets certainly aren’t going to soften; not far from being able to float some wheat around from SA to Qld at current levels.

Global wheat: Chicago -0.61 percent day / -4.55pc week, Kansas City +0.04pc day / -4.06pc week, Matif -0.38pc day / -3.8pc week.
Wheat markets were mostly lower on Friday with Chicago shedding 3.5 cents, Minny falling 6.75 cents and Kansas City managing to eke out a fractional gain. The slight outperformance in KC was tied to growing weather concerns in HRW country, where rainfall has underperformed expectations. The weekend was largely disappointing, particularly for western KS.
Spread markets in both Chicago and KC firmed through the week, with KC strength attributed to growers holding grain back amid rising weather anxiety rather than any improvement in basis.
Chicago economics were supportive enough to bid up nearby contracts, with some also flagging quality concerns from excessive rainfall in Illinois and areas to the east.
On the speculative side, Chicago ended 195 consecutive weeks of spec short positioning last week, only to re-establish a fresh short in the latest COT, which helps explain some of the lethargic price response to deteriorating crop conditions.
Globally, demand remains thin on the cusp of the northern hemisphere harvest, leaving EU and Black Sea cash markets exposed to further weakness.
Russia approved an additional 5 million tonne export quota for wheat, meslin, barley and corn through to the end of June, adding to the bearish supply backdrop.

Other grains and oilseeds: Corn -0.68% day / -2.49% week, Soybeans +0.90% day / +1.05% week, Matif Canola -0.63% day / -3.14% week
Corn extended its slide on Friday, with July futures off 0.9% after breaking below key technical levels the session prior. Every major moving average has now given way and the selling has taken on a structural character as longs continue to exit.
The market found some stability around the 470 level in December futures and was also supported by strength in the soy complex. Despite the weak price action, the US remains competitively priced, evidenced by a daily sale of 125,640 tonnes of corn to unknown destinations, with PNW shipments to Asia still the cheapest option landed.
Input cost concerns also resurfaced, particularly around Brazilian fertilizer needs, with the view that a new pricing paradigm for inputs could lead to lower planted area in coming seasons.
Soybeans were double digits higher on the day, though meal was the star of the show.
May crush settled up 14 cents at 292.25, driven by a surge in the Brazilian real, a slow Argentine harvest at only 22% complete, planned downtime at several crush plants next week, strong weekly export sales, an 8% rise in US domestic meal use, and a daily sale of 100,000 tonnes of soymeal to Italy highlighting the cost pressures facing EU crush operators.
The USDA attache projected Argentina’s 2026/27 soybean crop at 49 million tonnes on slightly higher area and a return to more typical yields.
Canola finished lower on ICE, weighed down by losses in Chicago soyoil and chart-based selling, with prices near their lowest point of the past month.
Old crop supply overhangs remain a bearish influence, though wide crush margins are keeping end-users engaged on dips.
Canadian canola exports for the week ended April 5 came in at 283,500 tonnes, up 22% on the prior week, though crop year to date volumes of 5.59 million tonnes remain well behind the 7.18 million tonnes exported at the same point last year.

Macro: AUD -0.25% day / +2.45% week, Dow -0.56% day / +3.04% week, Crude -1.33% day / -13.42% week
The macro backdrop deteriorated sharply over the weekend after US-Iran talks in Islamabad collapsed following 21 hours of negotiations. Vice President Vance returned home without an agreement, saying a mutually acceptable deal had not been reached and reiterating the need for firm assurances that Iran would not pursue nuclear weapons. Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Washington failed to gain the Iranian delegation’s trust despite what he described as constructive initiatives. In response, President Trump announced the US would begin blockading all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports from Monday morning New York time, sending Brent crude surging nearly 8% toward 103 dollars a barrel and WTI rising more than 8% to around 104.58.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, effectively in place since US and Israeli strikes began in late February, is tightening physical crude supplies globally and triggering a scramble among refiners for available cargoes.
Goldman Sachs noted that even if flows through the strait improve, the long shipping times mean any relief would take weeks to materialise.
The Australian dollar gapped lower on the open, trading around 0.7010 during Asian hours as risk aversion rose. The move lower was compounded by domestic inflation concerns, with Australia’s monthly inflation gauge hitting a record 1.3% in March.
The RBA has already lifted rates 50 basis points to 4.10% and markets are now pricing a 64% probability of a further hike to 4.35% at the May meeting.
Prime Minister Albanese moved to shore up energy security, announcing visits to Brunei and Malaysia, which together supply a significant share of Australia’s diesel and fuel needs.

Local: The week ended a little firmer for cereals in the west of the country, with current season wheat at $332 and barley at $336, while canola was $765 FIS Albany.
Through the east of the country canola was a little softer at $740, while cereals were steady with wheat at $332 and barley at $312 track Geelong.
Some handy rainfall fell across southern cropping areas over the last week, although there is still little to no rain forecast for most of NSW and southern QLD over the coming week. With limited to no subsoil moisture across a large part of central and northern NSW as well as southern QLD, expect increased fallow area heading into this season.
Southern barley still feels well supported. We have seen record exports through to February, and while export demand has now eased, it feels as though the feed market has stepped up to fill the void.