International

USDA August WASDE published estimates overnight of US soybean production (+4.2Mt) and ending stocks (+3.4Mt) and world ending stocks (+6.54Mt) surprising to the upside. Its record US corn yield was at the upper end of pre report expectations. USDA lowered its US wheat production estimate by 700,000t reflecting a cut to area which flowed through to lower stocks. 

The US ending stocks estimates were considered neutral for corn, bearish for soybeans and neutral to bullish for wheat. World corn and wheat ending stocks estimates were considered neutral, but the soybeans ending stock estimate was considered bearish.

World wheat production for 2024-25 was revised up 2.09Mt to 798.28Mt. Global exports were up 1.97Mt at 214.86Mt and ending stocks were down 0.62Mt at 256.62Mt (256.87Mt expected). Russian production was unchanged at 83Mt (winter -1.5Mt, spring +1.5Mt), EU was down 2Mt at 128Mt, Australia was up 1Mt at 30Mt, Ukraine was up 2.1Mt at 21.6Mt and Kazakhstan was up 1.5Mt at 16Mt. 

World corn production was down 4.97Mt with cuts to EU (-3.5Mt), Ukraine (-0.5Mt) and Russia (-0.9Mt) partially offset by the 1.18Mt increase for the US. 

US sorghum production was cut by 2.39Mt, down 25pc from the July estimate now seen at 7.08Mt. 

Canada canola was unchanged at 20Mt, while Russia was revised up 0.8Mt to a record 5.1Mt, up 21pc year on year. 

GASC only purchased 280kt out of the 3.8Mt they had tendered for, sourced from Ukraine and Bulgaria at US$259.24-269.25/t c&f for Oct-Nov delivery.

The Alberta Crop Report for the week ending 6 August noted widespread thunderstorms brought much needed moisture across the province, providing relief to crops stressed by prolonged periods of high temps. The rain is expected to help later seeded crops meet yield expectations. Spring wheat rated good/excellent was at 51pc (55pc week ago, 45pc year ago), barley at 45pc (47pc, 40pc) and canola at 39pc (43pc, 42pc).

South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group reportedly purchased 68kt of feed corn, likely from South America, at $233.80/t c&f, plus an additional port unloading surcharge quoted at $1.75/t, for Dec arrival.

US private exporters reported the sales of 165kt of corn to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year and 300kt of soybeans to unknown destinations (100kt 2023-24 marketing year and 200kt 2024-25 marketing year).

Australia

Bids for Western Australian canola started the week lower by A$10/t for old crop in WA. New crop numbers were lower by a lesser amount, bid at around $730/t and $770/t, respectively. It was more of the same for cereals with WA wheat bid at $360/t and $370/t for old and new crop and barley at $310/t and $323/t. In eastern Australia old and new crop canola lost $5/t on Friday’s bid, while cereal values were steady for both new and old crop. 

USDA forecast Australian 2024-25 wheat production at 30Mt, up 1Mt from its July estimate, barley unchanged at 11.5Mt and canola unchanged at 5.5Mt.