Markets

Daily Market Wire 13 December 2023

Lachstock Consulting, December 13, 2023

The HRW wheat market rallied 4 percent, the oilseeds eased and Brent crude eased 3 percent. 

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat up 16c/bu to US625.5c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat up 24.5c/bu to 656.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat up 17.75c/bu to 729.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 up €3/t to €231.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn March 2024 up 3.75c/bu to 485.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 9c/bu to 1356c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$9.50/t to C$677.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €6.75/t to €441.75/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat unchanged at A$390/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley down A$6.20 to $318.80/t;
  • AUD dollar down 8 points to US$0.6560.

International

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon reports that Russian wheat prices in the European part of Russia have strengthened, with a surge in wheat bids supported by increased demand in both the export and domestic markets. Export sales of Russian wheat saw an uptick in the past week with Egypt’s GASC buying 540kt. The quantity of outstanding sales of Russian wheat as of last Friday stood at 3.4Mt, a jump from 1.1Mt the previous week. In the domestic market, high demand from millers and livestock farms is bolstering prices, with consumers likely trying to replenish stocks ahead of the long New Year holidays. 

The Brazilian national agricultural agency, Conab, reports that as at 9 Dec, 2023-24 first (full-season) maize sowing was 66pc complete (77pc previous year), with fieldwork progressing slowly in Minas Gerais. Reports suggests that some acreage was being replaced by soybeans. Conditions in Rio Grande do Sul were seen favourable for planting progress, while rains aided fieldwork in western parts of Bahia. However, irregular precipitation continued to delay seeding in other areas, while also decreasing yield potential. Soybean sowing reached 90pc done (96pc), with last fields in Mato Grosso being planted. Rainfall provided some relief to fields with a water deficit, albeit arriving too late to reverse earlier damage in some areas. Drier conditions supported fieldwork in Rio Grande do Sul, where some fields were being replanted. Beneficial rains helped crops partially recover in Mato Grosso do Sul. 

Brazil’s Ministry of Trade reports that as at 10 Dec, cumulative MY maize exports are at 43.5Mt (+20pc from previous year) and soybean exports are at 99.1Mt (+30pc). 

Ongoing delays in grain shipments from the US Gulf to Asia via the Panama Canal are expected to last until the first quarter of 2024, with normalisation anticipated from April/May onward (start of the wet season). Average wait times for bulk grain ships had risen to about 20 days by the end of November. The Panama Canal Authority cut transits from 35 to 22 per day which are expected to be further reduced to 18 by February 2024. 

Ukrainian President Zelensky reportedly failed to sway Republican members of the US Congress yesterday as he made an urgent plea for quick approval of more aid. 

US private exporters reported sales of 198kt of soybeans to unknown destinations during the 2023-24 marketing year.

Australia

Wheat prices, broadly off $7-10/t, fell sharply yesterday reflecting a combination of the futures sell off and the weight of Vic harvest. Barley was a little more resilient, giving up only $2/t. Canola values bucked the trend with another day of gains of between $5-7/t for the day. Broadly speaking though, the market was missing any real trade volume so it was hard to truly define. 

CBH received 1.2Mt in the week ending 10 December, taking total receivals to 11.7Mt. The Albany and Kwinana South zones contributed most to the weekly total. Harvest is almost over in the Esperance, Kwinana North and Geraldton zones, with deliveries now trickling into the system. The update noted that receivals are noticeably declining in every zone, with CBH preparing for the end of harvest, which is expected to wrap up before Christmas for most. 

Viterra received 573kt for the week ending 10 December, taking total receivals to 4.97Mt. The update noted the difficulties faced with extreme weather including heat on Friday and extreme winds and storms over the weekend.

 

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