Offshore markets closed mostly higher in the wake of USDA WASDE out overnight.
- Chicago wheat March 2023 contract up US 2.75 cents per bushel to 742.75c/bu;
- Kansas wheat March 2023 contract up 12.75c/bu at 835c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat March 2023 contract up 13c/bu to 912.25c/bu;
- MATIF wheat March 2023 contract down €1.75/t to €291.25/t;
- Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract up 50c/t to $308/t;
- Corn March 2023 contract up 15c/bu to 671c/bu;
- Soybeans March 2023 contract up 25.5c/bu to 1518.5c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract up C$10.60/t to $842.40/t;
- MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract up €5.75/t to €569/t;
- ASX Mar 2023 wheat contract steady at A$375/t;
- ASX Mar 2023 barley contract down $5/t to $315/t;
- AUD dollar firmed to US$0.6968.
The USDA January WASDE, Grain Stocks report for December 1 and its annual report of Winter Wheat Seedings came out over night. There were a few surprises in the WASDE, namely lower US corn and soybean production than what the market was expecting. They also surprisingly left Russian and Australian wheat production unchanged. Downward revisions for South American corn and soybean production were pretty much in line with expectations. USDA estimated 2023 winter wheat planted area at 11pc higher than 2022 and above trade expectations.
The IGC’s Grain Market Report was also released yesterday, and it pegged 2022-23 global wheat production at a record 796Mt versus the USDA ‘s 781Mt. The forecast is 5Mt up on the November GMR, including upward revisions for Ukraine by 3.8Mt to 25.2Mt and Australia, up 3.4Mt to 38.5Mt. In contrast, the outlook for Argentina is down 1Mt to 12Mt on disappointing harvest results.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 2022-23 soybean production outlook could be slashed by as much as 25pc to 35.5Mt vs USDA on 45.5Mt, which would represent a worst-case scenario, reflecting the potential impact of hot dry weather. Maize output is seen as low as 37.8Mt against USDA’s 52Mt.
Brazil’s CONAB has released revised corn and soybean production estimates with modest month-to-month cuts following planting delays in some areas due to cool wet weather, while planting in other parts of Brazil was delayed by a lack of soil moisture. Soybeans were pegged at 152.7Mt and corn at 125Mt, pretty much the same as USDA.
Brazil’s ANEC (grain exporters’ association) expects 2023 soybean exports to exceed 90Mt, with maize shipments expected to exceed last year’s 43.2Mt, including potential exports to China of about 4Mt.
Liquidity continued to trickle out, Feed wheat markets remained well bid across the export pathways, milling wheat continued to relax slightly, malt barley values came off the boil through VIC up country sites and canola was up a few bucks yesterday
Clear skies are expected over the weekend which will enable to grind to continue for southern growers who will be racing to get as much done as they can before showers are forecast to return next week.