Last night was all about the July WASDE report, with the reaction overall bearish primarily based on corn yield estimate at 177.5 bushels per acre (bu/ac) whereas the trade was looking for 176.5bu/ac. On wheat, US 2023/24 production was forecast 47.3Mt, 1.5Mt above expectations and 2Mt above the June report. The increase came from both acres (+600k) and yield (+1.2bpa). Feed use was increased 20 million bushels (Mbu) which saw ending stocks increased up 30Mbu. On corn, the decreased yield along with last week’s additional 2 million acres (Mac) saw production up 55Mbu from the June report. Ending stocks were up 5Mbu at 2.262Mbu, use unchanged. Soybean yield was left unchanged at 52bpa however when coupled with the 4Mac lost last week in the June planting report, production was down 210Mbu. This was offset with lower crush (-10Mbu) and lower exports (-125Mbu) to see ending stocks down 50Mbu, but 100Mbu above trade expectations. 

Globally, 23/24 corn production was up 1.7Mt from the June report with increases in US and Ukraine offset by a reduction in the EU. World wheat production was forecast down 3.5Mt the increase in the US offset by reductions in Argentina (-2Mt), Canada (-2Mt) and the EU (-2.5Mt). Australian forecast was left unchanged at 29Mt. Soybean world production was down 5.4Mt, reflecting the US losses and saw a tightening of global ending stocks by 4.2Mt. 

Canola shrugged the trend and posted gains on both the Matif and Winnipeg exchanges reflecting dry weather gripping much of Canada and the lower than anticipated yields in Europe. 

The rain forecast for the US corn belt continues to look good, with average to above average rain forecast for many of the central corn belt states across the next 7 days in a welcome change from the June dryness. 

Trade estimates for tonight’s Conab Brazil soybean and corn production report have soybeans more or less unchanged at 155.78Mt whilst corn is estimated up just shy of 8Mt at 133.58Mt since the June report. 

The NATO Summit has stopped short of offering Ukraine membership into the alliance however continued to pledge security guarantees. It also backed Sweden’s NATO membership. 

The has been no material news on the Black Sea Grain Deal which remains due to expire on 17 July. This is after some shelling on Odessa infrastructure by Russia just yesterday.

Australia

Firming canola values saw some trade activity on both current and new crop yesterday as producers get greater comfort around production potential for the coming year. Aussie values at circa A$700/t track however they still sit well below the Canadian $A equivalent at A$800/t. 

Wheat and barley values were more or less unchanged taking greater lead from European pricing. 

The 8-day BOM forecast shows only 5mm of rain across much of the southern cropping belts which may provide opportunity for producers to get paddock access for long overdue herbicide and fertiliser applications. 

The RBA announced that from 2024 its board will meet eight times a year compared with the current eleven.