Stronger for grains, minimal change for oilseeds.
- CBOT wheat up 19.25c to 550c,
- Kansas wheat up 18c to 568c,
- Corn up 10.5c to 386.75c,
- Soybeans up 0.5c to 959.5c,
- Matif canola steady at €351.25,
- Dow Jones down 1.58 to 25320.73,
- Crude oil down US$0.519 to $65.84c,
- AUD down to 0.7572c,
- CAD up to 1.3018c (AUDCAD 0.9857),
- EUR down to 1.1744c (AUDEUR 0.6446).
Wheat strengthened overnight with the release of the USDA report that had Russian wheat production down to 68.5 million tonnes (Mt), and EU production down by 1Mt. Despite the market reacting to this news, world stocks were increased by 2Mt. UkrAgroConsult has lowered its estimate of Ukraine’s 2018-19 wheat crop by 3 per cent to 25.5Mt,which represents a 600,000t decline from 2017-18, on the back of a lack of rain.
USDA’s latest estimate tightened corn stocks by 2Mt in old-crop, and 5Mt for new-crop. We saw US corn rally 10c overnight, but it still feels like it could be underpriced, given the lack of risk premium built into the current price, and the potential volatility of the next few months.
ABARES came out today with a 21.9Mt 2018/19 wheat forecast for Australia, which was in contrast to the USDA’s number of 24Mt. New South Wales looks set to remain dry, with nothing of significance on the eight-day rainfall forecast. On the other side of the country, Western Australia is all smiles, with already greatly improved conditions and the likelihood of more rain.
Source: Lachstock Consulting