International

USDA June WASDE changes included a 5Mt cut for Russian wheat production, now seen at 83Mt (other estimates are now sub 80Mt), a 1.5Mt cut for Ukraine, 1.5Mt cut for France and a 0.35Mt cut for the UK. The US got a 0.47Mt bump – leaving world wheat production down 7.43Mt this month. Russian exports were cut by 4Mt and Ukraine by 1Mt which was partially offset by a 1Mt increase for EU exports. Global ending stocks were cut by 1.3Mt, now seen at 252.3Mt (trade expected 251Mt). Markets had anticipated most of the changes. 

For corn USDA made no changes to old or new crop US balance sheets and left Brazil and Argentina unchanged.  

For soybean it cut Brazil’s 2023-24 soybean crop by 1Mt, now seen at 153Mt (higher than the pre report estimate of 152Mt) and Argentina was left unchanged. 

The Russian Grain Union estimated that frosts have impacted between 15pc and 30pc of 2024-25 winter crops, with the figure varying by region. Across all crops, around 1pc of total acreage has been damaged. Separately, according to the local governor, a state of emergency has been declared in the southern Rostov region due to ongoing drought. 

The Manitoba Crop Report for the week ending 11 June noted variable rainfall was recorded over the week, with moisture mostly evident in Eastern and Northwest regions. Sowing of 2024-25 crops progressed across the province despite the wet conditions. It is now estimated  92pc complete (97pc previous year, 96pc five-year avg), including spring wheat at 98pc, barley at 97pc and canola at 88pc. 

The French Farm Ministry has pegged 2024-25 winter barley production at 8.6Mt (9.7Mt previous year) and canola at 4.2Mt (4.3Mt). 

Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased 60kt milling wheat from optional origins, at US$271.95/t c&f, for Jul shipment and has issued a new international tender (26 June) for 120kt of milling wheat and 120kt of feed barley which can be sourced from optional origins. 

US private exporters reported sales of 106kt of soybeans to China during the 2023-24 marketing year. 

Australia

In local markets, WA current crop wheat values have been down throughout the week but the falls have not reflected the full weakness offshore. The Kwinana port zone is still seeing solid exporter interest, albeit mostly against existing sales as opposed to fresh business. Export pace continues robust, and we see it at 93pc complete by the end of the month. New crop bids are lower, with APW1 Multi Grade wheat now just shy of A$400/t FIS, CAN remains at $795/t FIS and feed barley $340/t FIS.

The 8-day forecast has rainfall totals of 10-25mm for SA and western Vic and although not a huge amount, it is desperately needed. Northern cropping regions of WA have some more rain on the forecast, while most other cropping regions are looking relatively dry over the coming week, with only 5-10mm expected.