Market moves for oilseeds were mixed while grains closed lower overnight.
- Chicago wheat July contract down US12c/bu to 729.75c;
- Kansas wheat July contract down 19.75c/bu to 690.75c;
- Minneapolis wheat July contract down 5c/bu to 765.5c;
- MATIF wheat September contract down €1.25/t to €225.50/t;
- Corn July contract down 7.5c/bu to 714.75;
- Soybeans July contract up 27.75c/bu to 1642.50c;
- Winnipeg canola July contract down C$30/t to $902.30;
- MATIF rapeseed August contract up €12.75/t to €556/t;
- US dollar index down 0.07 to 90.72;
- AUD weaker at US$0.773;
- CAD stronger at $1.211;
- EUR weaker at $1.208;
- ASX wheat July contract up AU$4.50/t to $319/t;
- ASX wheat January 2022 up $4/t to $321/t.
USDA’s WASDE report, as always, presents more questions than answers. For example, the corn balance sheet, on paper, looks under control. However, it is considerably easier to tighten the USDA assumption rather than loosen its numbers. Brazil production is arguably overstated, the estimate for US new-crop corn yield looks aggressive, and China new-crop imports seems well under the average trade assumption. The market will now go back to trading its numbers and, today at least, warrants risk premium.Weather is still the dominant input and Brazil is still searching for rainfall; with its safrinha harvest kicking off early next month, it is hard to see how estimates don’t continue to slide.
Local new-crop canola rebounded from its prior down day to be back up AU$10-$15/t. We continue to see that strength flow into markets today, with more gains through the offshore boards on Winnipeg and MATIF contracts of up to AU$20-25/t on the Nov contracts.
Current crop-markets were flat to up $1-2/t. The wheat bids have started to scramble for spot loads for next week as the logistical nightmare continues. System grain continues to leak out across the country on wheat and barley, with the unknown factor being how much grain remains on -farm. With a late break through parts of South Australia and Victoria, and limited precipitation on the outlook for central and southern New South Wales, we may start to see this supply tighten and stocks remain on farm.
The sorghum harvest through Queensland and northern NSW continues to grind away with many delays caused by high-moisture grain and frustrating harvest conditions. Two export vessels totalling 60,000t are on the stem out of Newcastle are to load by the end of May.
Source: Lachstock Consulting