Markets

Daily Market Wire 13 May 2022

Lachstock Consulting, May 13, 2022

US wheat markets up 5pc. MATIF wheat rose 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat July contract up 65.75cents per bushel to 1178.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat July contract up 69.50/bu to 1270c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat July up 60c/bu to 1316c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €10.50/t to €413.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract up $5.50/t to $397.75/t;
  • Corn July contract up 3c/bu to 791.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans July contract up 7c/bu to 1613.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$1.60/t to $1087.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €0.25/t to €835.25/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract up $5.50 to $445.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $5/t to $457/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.685

International

WASDE day – more questions than answers but, from a high level they went hard on wheat, not so hard on corn.

The USDA cut wheat harder than the market was expecting, especially in the US. HRW at 590mbu was well below expectations. The market was up 15-20c pre-report, put on another 20c to be up 40c, Kansas put on another 10c on top. Bullish.

They were also aggressive on US corn, cutting yield to 177bu/ac, but they cooked the books elsewhere. Decreasing corn feeding versus last year was an odd one given the changes in relative prices and less sorghum around. Also, some head in the sand moments, globally. No changes to Argentina and Brazil production and they found 8Mt of old crop production across minor countries. It is a mixed report, but bullish nonetheless. The yield story is alive and all the other “disappointing” figures are more timing issues than anything and the USDA will have to catch up there soon. Corn rallied 15c post report in sympathy with wheat, but gave 10c of that back to be sitting +10c for the day

Beans was also mixed. The US report pretty neutral to bearish. Globally, the old crop stocks being lower is supportive. US soyoil tightening continues in 22/23. Bean futures were very choppy, settling +10c on the day. ng +10c on the day.

Australia

The wild ride continues, locally. It’s the same old story and themes that drive the wheat and barley markets with bids up another $10/t yesterday through delivered and depot site. APW1 delivered Melbourne/Geelong cracked $500/t while H2 in Queensland rallied again pushing to $525-530 levels all for June deliveries. Malt barley picked up a bid in Victoria late with trades going through around the $445 track level.

The forecast certainly delivered with many areas in Queensland picking up at least 100mm with road closures now in effect in some parts due to another round of localised flooding. Queensland’s Southern Downs region was inundated by floodwaters overnight, as more flood warnings and five emergency alerts were issued across the state. The Bureau of Meteorology has warned six-hour rainfall totals of up 160mm on Friday could lead to life-threatening flash floods, and potential landslides, between Gladstone, Coolangatta and the Darling Downs. Moderate to major flooding is underway on the Cape, Condamine, Balonne, Thomson, Barcoo, Georgina, Kolan and Flinders rivers.

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