Markets

Daily Market Wire 13 October 2021

Lachstock Consulting, October 13, 2021

Canola, US soybeans and corn fell more than 2pc. Wheat firmed.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US2.25c/bu to 734c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 5.25c/bu to 739.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December up 9.5c/bu to 955c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €3/t to €271.50/t;
  • Corn December contract down 10.5c/bu to 522.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 30c/bu to 1198.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract down C$25.80 to C$901.10;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract down €9.25/t to €641.25/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.2 to 94.5;
  • AUD unchanged at US$0.735;
  • CAD firmer at $1.247;
  • EUR weaker at $1.153;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down A$4/t to $342/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2023 down A$6.50/t to $353.50/t.

International

Last night’s futures trade saw row crop prices hit hard after higher production projections in the October WASDE report. Soybeans were down 30¢ and corn -10.5¢ (Matif -9.25€. Winnipeg -$25.8).  Wheat was slightly firmer with Chicago +2 1/4¢, KC +5 1/4¢, Minny+9.5¢, and Matif +3€ on the earlier close.  Macro markets were more mixed with crude trading at $80.5 WTI / $83.4 Brent and the DOW -117 points.  The AUD is trading at 73.5¢, the CAD $1.246, and the EUR $1.153 with the dxy at 94.5.

FX markets have been watching the US Fed with comments from officials last night suggesting they’re closer again to tapering their bond buying program. Question is when, and by how much?

October WASDE figures had US corn yield at 176.5, beans 51.5 – both about half a bushel higher than surveyed expectations.  There were some large increases to yields in the wester Corn Belt, drawing a few questions, but the market will trade the USDA numbers until they have a reason to trade otherwise.

A flash export sale had 165,000t of corn sold to Mexico, but no confirmation of the rumoured Chinese bean buying; rumours now are supplemented by talk of purchases ex PNW too, with front-end basis being bid up on the export side.

Regular crop progress figures were also out, having been delayed by the holiday. Corn harvest is reported 41 per cent (pc) complete, beans 49pc and milo 49pc.  Winter wheat is reported 60pc planted.

Weekly inspection figures had wheat 0.4 million tonnes (Mt), corn 0.7Mt, beans 1.6Mt, and 11,000t milo/sorghum none of which was to China. The export figures were at or above expectations.

France Agrimer raised the corn crop estimate to 13.9Mt compared with the September estimate 13.3Mt.

Australia

Wheat markets remained relatively unchanged yesterday across the grower bids while trade markets were a buck or two softer on the bid side along the East Coast. SA APW track continues to trade $35 under Port Kembla zone and the wheat barley spread in SA is around $80-90. We saw a similar theme in the barley market with grower bids largely unchanged for the day. ASX wheat futures saw some action yesterday with volume trading in the Jan contract and traded down to a low of $342/t and settled the day out at $343/t.

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