Markets

Daily Market Wire 14 April 2022

Lachstock Consulting, April 14, 2022

Wheat and corn firmed 1pc. The oils and oilseeds complex, though mixed, closed mostly firmer.

  • Chicago wheat May contract up US9.75cents per bushel to 1113.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May contract up 11.75c/bu to 1174c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May up 2.75c/bu to 1159c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May contract up €3.75/t to €403/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract up $0.50/t to $360.50/t;
  • Corn May contract up 7.25c/bu to 783.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May contract up 5.75c/bu to 1676c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$9.10 /t to $1027.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €0.75/t to €816.75/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract unchanged at A$405/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $3/t to $416/t;
  • AUD dollar unchanged at US$0.745.

International

Wednesday’s futures markets opened lower and then made strong gains as Egypt’s GASC announced it had booked 350,000t, namely four French cargoes, one Russian and a small Bulgarian vessel. Since the previous purchase made by Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat buyer, two months ago, CNF values have moved US$140/t so don’t be fooled thinking this is just a futures rally. The price of wheat traded into Egypt will reflect the full move given the dominance by both Russia and Ukraine historically, but this shows that there is fundamental strength in FOB and CNF. It also shows that Russia will still feature in this program, although the seller supposedly has their own boats which allows them to get around the current constrictions on shipping. Given that crop conditions are looking good in Russia it would be hard to take the knife to Russian exports. New crop wheat will still find its way out, if old crop was anything to go by.

Weather predictions in the US are looking good, but rain hasn’t fallen yet. It would be interesting to see if the market could actually trade supply demand fundamentals. The next US wheat weekly export sales report will be interesting given the US relative value. Sales of close to 650,000t per week are needed to reach the USDA annual projection, which seems pretty unlikely. This whole market is trying to solve for zero – when is there enough risk premium in the market? – at what level do we reprice trade flows to solve the global shortfalls?  –  is it the function of the futures market to do this or will exchanges like Chicago dislocate from the world physical markets due to capital flow alone?

Corn is, in my humble opinion, a powder keg. The reliance on US production is too big. As we reported this week, Biden moved to E15 and the world held its breath over Ukraine corn planting…scary stuff.

Australia

Liquidity picked up leading into Easter. Local trading activity continued to find a trading point yesterday and current crop wheat values were a touch firmer across the board. There is still a large premium for prompt delivery wheat if you can sort the logistics.

New crop wheat values firmed again, multigrade grower bids stronger by another $5-10/t.

Canola yet again went from strength to strength, another $10-15/t firmer by close of business.

Supply chain pressure leading into Easter not doubt will continue into the following short week, Anzac Day which will round out the month of April.

Domestic mills are running out of grain and export terminals facing mounting delays. Deliveries are unlikely to become any easier any time soon now that planting is underway, the grower truck fleet drying up and rail issues likely getting worse now the Sydney line is down due to flooding.

Moisture has been added back into the BOM 8-day model for South Australia with the Eyre Peninsula set to see a system feed in from WA which is predicting 10-15mm event.

 

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