Markets continued to ease.

• Chicago wheat May 2023 contract down US12.5 cents per bushel to $667c/bu;
• Kansas wheat May 2023 contract down 18.25c/bu to 845.25c/bu;
• Minneapolis wheat May 2023 down 10.5c/bu to 849.5c/bu;
• MATIF wheat May 2023 down €3.75/t to €247.25/t;
• Black Sea wheat May 2023 down $0.50/t at $278.75/t;
• Corn May 2023 contract down 3.75c/bu to 652.25c/bu;
• Soybeans May 2023 contract down 3.25c/bu to 1501c/bu;
• Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract down C$0.40/t to $770.60/t;
• MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract down €6.50/t to €443/t;
• ASX May 2023 wheat contract up A$1.80/t to $388.30/t;
• ASX January 2024 wheat contract up $2/t to $390/t;
• ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at A$332.20/t;
• AUD dollar gained 91 points to US$0.6782

International

Russia doubled down yesterday saying there would be no extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative beyond 18 May unless the West removed a series of obstacles to Russian grain and fertiliser export. “Without progress on solving five systemic problems…there is no need to talk about the further extension of the Black Sea initiative after May 18,” the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement. “We note that, despite all the high-sounding statements about global food security and assistance to countries in need, the Black Sea Initiative both served and continues to serve exclusively commercial exports of Kyiv in the interests of Western countries.”

Brazilian national agricultural agency CONAB revised Brazil’s 2022-23 soybean crop estimate upward by 2.2Mt to 153.6Mt, with both area and yields increased from last month. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 153.9Mt. It lifted corn production from 124.7Mt to 124.9Mt.

Rosario Grain Exchange made further cuts to Argentine crop estimates. The soybean crop now is seen at 23Mt, down 4Mt from the previous forecast and the lowest yields in 15 years and corn production at 32Mt, down a further 3Mt with yields lowest in 14 years. 

Refinitiv Commodities Research has pegged China’s 2023-24 wheat crop at a record 140.0Mt (137.7Mt previous year). After relatively dry conditions since mid-Feb, widespread rains fell across the key winter wheat producing areas in early April. So far vegetation densities (NDVIs), extracted from satellite imagery, are overall near or above the long-term average, indicating good to excellent crop conditions. 

FranceAgriMer reported French grain crops were seeing ideal conditions “We are very optimistic” about 2023 grain crops, Benoît Piétrement, chair of the grains council said at a press briefing. Some areas in the south are still very dry and some in the north have been humid, but crops generally have seen “very favourable” weather conditions.

US weekly wheat sales of 135,700t for were down 30pc from the previous week and 27pc from the prior 4-week average. Corn sales of 527,700t were down 58pc from the previous week and 68pc from the prior 4-week average. Soybean sales of 364,500t were up noticeably from the previous week and up 17pc from the prior 4-week average.

US private exporters reported sales of 327,000t corn for delivery to China. Of the total, 191,000t is for delivery during 2022-23 and 136,000t is for delivery during 2023-24 marketing year.

Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association reportedly purchased 52,850t US milling wheats for May-Jun shipment, including 34,500t DNS (14.5pc protein), at $352 fob (PNW), 11,100t HRW (min 12.5pc) at $364.38 fob (PNW) and 7,250t SW/WW (min 8.5pc, max 10.0pc) at $283.63 fob (PNW). Freight set at $31.45/t. 

Australia

Local markets drifted sideways again yesterday, and liquidity remained sluggish. Growers are now starting to ramp up planting programs with some good rainfalls in eastern Australia this week. 

The weekend forecast is also looking good for some, with SA and Vic expected to receive a widespread 10-25mm. Southern and central NSW are looking at less than 10mm and all other winter cropping regions are looking relatively dry over the next 4 days. 

ABS data shows Australia exported just under 598,000t of canola in February, down from 713,000t exported in January. The EU took 75pc of the total volume at 448,000t, Japan took 89,000t and Mexico 32,000t.