Daily Market Wire 14 August 2018

Lachstock Consulting, August 14, 2018

Wheat markets are again softer as the overwhelmingly long wheat market tries to contend with the USDA report that has left a lot of open questions, along with the uncertainty surrounding the Turkish economy.  Oilseeds are finding some support.

  • CBOT Wheat was down -13c to 553.5c,
  • Kansas wheat down -19c to 540c,
  • corn down -1c to 356.5c,
  • Soybean up 7c to 868.75c,
  • Winnipeg canola up 10c to C$505, and
  • Matif canola down -3.75€ to €378.50.
  • The Dow Jones down -125.09 to 25187.14,
  • Crude Oil up 0.24c to $US67.44 per barrel,
  • AUD down 30pts to 0.7271c,
  • CAD likewise down to 1.3126c, (AUDCAD 0.9550) and the
  • EUR steady at 1.1406c (AUDEUR 0.6374).



With the market long wheat, including funds that were 65,000 contracts long (now estimate 50-50,000) vs. record of 80,000, and generally very bullish tone from many traders – the wake of the USDA report has been heavy.  Wheat again softer today as the hunt for demand starts.  US harvest progressing well, with winter harvest all but done (94pc) and a favourable week of weather in the north allowed the spring wheat harvest to progress to 35pc (vs. 13pc last week and 27pc average).


Corn managed to close higher despite the ongoing melt-down in the wheat pit.  Like beans, export biz to Mexico was seen as favourable and ongoing talk of US exports into Europe and strong sorghum demand continued to buoy the corn market.  Certainly it feels a lot like the market did its job this week to ration wheat and stimulate corn demand.


Soybeans found support after a torrid week of price action.  Confirmation of export business being done to Mexico helped put a floor in the market, otherwise the market remained firmly focused on the uncontrollables of politics.


Canola was steady today despite the weaker currency and ongoing concern over the impact that recent hot and dry weather has had on the crop.


Quiet day in the Australian market yesterday, down A$4-5/t with the weaker AUD more than offset by the softer CBOT futures and uncertainty surrounding the USDA report.  Wouldn’t say the wind has been knocked out of the sails in the market, we still lack any meaningful rain in the forecast, but certainly took a breather yesterday.

Source: Lachstock Consulting


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