USDA’s August WASDE was mostly in line with pre report expectations. The cut to the US corn yield was expected and the soybean yield was slightly lower than expected. Total US wheat production was slightly below expectations with higher HRW and SRW offset by a lower than expected spring wheat estimate. Notable world wheat production changes were Canada down 2Mt to 33Mt, China down 3Mt to 137Mt, EU down 3Mt to 135Mt and Ukraine up 3.5Mt to 21Mt. World wheat was down 3.3Mt from July but up 3.4Mt year on year. World canola production was cut by 1.35Mt to 86Mt. Canadian canola was cut by 1.3Mt to 19Mt (which is still higher than other estimates) and Ukraine production was bumped up to 4.1Mt, up 17pc from last year. World barley production was cut by 3Mt to 143Mt and is now down over 9Mt year on year, with the EU cut by 2Mt, Canada by 0.6Mt and Russia by 0.5Mt. 

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that wheat planting is now complete with conditions rated 85pc fair/excellent, down from 88pc last week. Total area is estimated at 6Mha, down 2pc from last year. Dryness began to adversely affect part of the crop in the north, with about 11pc of planted area showing signs of stress due to lack of water, while cold weather in the centre-west and the south could delay early crop development. 

FranceAgriMer reports that as at 7 August, 2023-24 the French common wheat crop is rated 77pc good/excellent (78pc previous week, 63pc previous year), winter barley at 80pc (80pc, 61pc), spring barley at 73pc (73pc, 48pc) and maize at 85pc (81pc, 53pc). Common wheat harvest was 89pc complete (94pc five-year avg) and spring barley 96pc (94pc avg).

Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy have revised up total grain and oilseed production to 76.7Mt, including wheat at 20.9Mt, barley 5.8Mt, corn 28.1Mt, sunflower 12.0Mt, rapeseed 4.0Mt, and soybeans 4.2Mt.

According to the IMF the world economy is showing signs of resilience despite lingering inflation, increasing the chance of avoiding a global recession. It was noted that there are still significant risks, particularly with China’s economy weighing on global output. The IMF forecast 3pc global growth this year and that inflation would ease from 8.7pc in 2022 to 6.8pc this year and 5.2pc in 2024, reflecting higher interest rates. 

US private exporters reported sales of 143,637 tonnes of corn to Mexico for the 2023-24 marketing year.

Australia

It was a big week in local markets, with China the main story driving the barley market and the lack of rain on the forecast for northern parts of NSW and Qld has consumers on the front foot, buying current and new crop up through the Downs. Barley bids for new crop on the Downs on Friday were left bid side around $450/t and SFW1 around $460/t. While over in WA barley was still priced around $345/t FIS BFED.

The USDA left their Australian production numbers unchanged in the August WASDE with wheat at 29Mt, barley 10Mt and canola at 4.9Mt.

More showers are expected over southern cropping regions this week, with totals mostly tipped to be less than 10mm with the exception of eastern Victoria and southeast NSW where 10-15mm is on the cards. The dry conditions look set to continue through the northern half of NSW and Qld.