Markets

Daily Market Wire 14 December 2023

Lachstock Consulting, December 14, 2023

The US winter wheat 3 percent price decline overnight follows several days of greater than normal trading ranges. Corn and soybeans eased 1 percent, rapeseed/canola eased in fractions. The US dollar index eased and the Dow Jones Industrials Average gained. 

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat down 20.25c/bu to US605.25c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat down 24.75c/bu to 632c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat down 16c/bu to 713.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 down €3.75/t to €227.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn March 2024 down 5.75c/bu to 479.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 15.75c/bu to 1340.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$2.40/t to C$675.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €3.25/t to €438.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat up A$2.30/t to $392.30/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley up A$1.30 to $320.10/t;
  • AUD dollar up 101 points, approx 1 1/2 percent, to US$0.6661.

International

The French Farm Ministry estimates 2024-25 winter wheat plantings at 4.5 million hectares (Mha), down 5pc from the previous year and 5pc below the five-year average. Durum at 205,000ha is down 11pc year on year and 16pc below average and winter barley at 1.3Mha is down 4pc from last year but 3pc above average. Winter rapeseed is pegged at 1.4Mha, up marginally year on year and 17pc above average. 

Ukraine govt reports that December agricultural commodity exports via the humanitarian corridor from deep sea ports is forecast at 5.0Mt (3.8Mt previous month). As at 8 December, total exports via the corridor are estimated at 8.6Mt, including 6Mt of agricultural goods. 

Tunisia’s state grains agency reportedly purchased 100kt wheat at US$279-$283/t c&f, 75kt durum at $437-$438/t c&f, and 50kt feed barley at $237/t c&f, all optional origins for Jan/Feb shipment. 

Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC reportedly purchased up to 930kt milling wheat, likely from France, and the Black Sea region, at $273/t c&f, for Feb/Mar shipment. 

Algeria’s state cereals agency ONAB (Office Algerien Interprofessionnel des Cereales) seeks (13 Dec) 200kt feed maize and 70kt soymeal, optional origins. 

Jordan’s state grains buyer reportedly seeks up to 120kt milling wheat from optional origins, for Mar/Apr shipment and up to 120kt feed barley from optional origins, for May/Jun shipment. 

US private exporters reported sales of 125kt soybeans to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

Local markets were mixed yesterday with wheat delivered Downs easing to A$425/t, while barley was holding ground at $435/t and ASW Melb at $385/t. It will be interesting to see what markets do today with the stronger Aussie dollar and further weakening in offshore markets. ASX Jan 24 wheat ended yesterday up $2.30/t at $392.30/t. 

Showers are expected to ease today across southern cropping regions with a dry weekend forecast, although more rain is expected to develop again from Monday next week. 

Line ups data shows that there is currently 3.6Mt of total grain on the shipping stem for December, including 1.68Mt of wheat, 1.28Mt of barley and 664kt of canola. There is no sorghum on the stem. The average vessel wait time is less than 8 days and currently there are 8 vessels loading and 7 vessels anchored at Australian ports.

 

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