Markets

Daily Market Wire 14 February 2024

Lachstock Consulting, February 14, 2024

Markets tended easier, though canola/rapeseed made small gains.  The Dow Jones Industrials Average settled more than 1 percent lower as did the Australian dollar and the ASX Eastern Australia wheat March contract.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat unchanged at US597.5c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat down 4.25c/bu to 594.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat down 10.75c/bu to 671.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 up €0.50/t to €209/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 up 0.75c/bu to 443.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 6c/bu to 1191.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$3.90/t to C$602.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €3.25/t to €425/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat down A$4.50/t to $363/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 76 points to US$0.6454

International

France’s Farm Ministry has cut winter crop area planted estimates, with the soft wheat area seen at its second-lowest in 30 years, after heavy rain disrupted planting. Soft wheat area is pegged at 4.36Mha, down from an initial forecast of 4.49Mha in December and now 8pc below last year. Winter barley area was revised down 0.4Mha to 1.27Mha, down 7pc from 2023 but in line with the 5-year avg. Winter rapeseed area was trimmed 0.1Mha to to 1.34Mha, down 1pc from last year but 16pc above the 5-year avg. 

Rosario Grains Exchange reports that due to high temperatures, about 100kha of area sown to soybeans has been lost in Argentina’s core agricultural region (about 10pc of late-planted area). Conditions in early-sown fields deteriorated during the past seven days, with yield potential dropping due to heat stress. 

Brazil’s Conab reports that as at 10 Feb, 2023-24 soybean harvest was 21pc complete (15pc previous year), with beneficial climatic conditions favouring fieldwork in Mato Grosso, where an improvement in yields was noted. Lack of precipitation adversely affected productivity in parts of Rio Grande do Sul, while weather conditions in Parana were conducive for harvest. First (full-season) maize planting was 97pc complete (99pc), with harvest estimated at 19pc complete (11pc). While hot and dry weather aided fieldwork, it was termed unfavourable for later-sown fields. Crop development in Minas Gerais was below normal owing to adverse weather, with fields being abandoned in the north and the northwest of the state. Safrinha (second) crop plantings seen at 32pc complete (20pc), with biggest weekly advances observed in Mato Grosso on favourable weather, also aiding early crop development. However, lack of rain and high temperatures adversely affected crop development in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul. 

Brazilian agricultural consultancy AgRural estimates that by Feb 8, Brazil’s 2023-24 soybean harvesting was 23pc complete (17pc year ago). The 2023-24 second (safrinha) maize crop production forecast was revised up 5Mt, to 91.2Mt (Conab 88.1Mt), reflecting larger than previously expected plantings. Accelerated harvest of soybeans, most notably in Mato Grosso, widened the ideal planting window for second maize. 

Jordan’s state grains buyer reportedly purchased 60kt of hard milling wheat from optional origins in an international tender yesterday at an estimated US$253/t c&f for May shipment. 

South Korea’s KFA reportedly purchased 68kt of feed maize, likely sourced from South America or South Africa, at $240.99/t c&f, for June arrival.

Australia

WA wheat values have been a touch weaker over the past week, which has meant an overall reduction in liquidity from the grower. Most bids for APW1 are sitting around A$400/t FIS Kwinana. Feed barley is in the $340-$345/t FIS price range for all major WA ports, while the best bids for canola (CAN) are $670-675/t FIS for Kwinana, Albany & Esperance. 

East coast wheat values were a touch firmer for delivered markets but lacked any real change up country. ASX was also off the boil, back down to $355.50/t for March. GM canola basis is firming as the spread to non-GM is trading at evens in Melbourne port zones.

Good rainfall totals are expected over most cropping regions of Qld over the next week with a widespread 15-50mm expected (parts of CQ looking at 50-100mm). Most cropping regions in NSW are looking at lower totals with central and northern forecast to receive 10-25mm, while the southeast can expect 10-50mm. Central/Eastern Vic is forecast to receive less than 10mm, while western Vic, WA and SA are looking at a dry week.

 

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