Markets

Daily Market Wire 14 January 2022

Lachstock Consulting, January 14, 2022

Market technicals ran out of reasons to be bullish, triggering substantial falls overnight.

  • Chicago wheat March contract down US11cents per bushel to 746.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March contract down 18.25c/bu to 759.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March down 25c/bu to 895.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March contract down €5.50/t to €265.75;
  • Corn March contract down 11.5c/bu to 587.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans March contract down 22c/bu to 1377.25c/bu
  • Winnipeg canola March 2022 contract down C$29.90/t to $984.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2022 contract down €38.75/t to €740.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2022 wheat contract down A$3/t to $357.50/t.
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $9/t to $356/t.
  • AUD dollar unchanged at US$0.728

International

In other markets Black Sea wheat closed down $3.25/t and the downward moves in both soybean meal and oil were less than 2pc.

US futures markets are suffering from a lack of information, a lack of fundamental reasons for them to maintain a premium to other competing origins. When the market goes up, it is all about inflation hedges, all about how tight stocks could be as we roll into northern hemisphere new crop. Today, however, no one cares. It is a strange time of the year given the lack of production data. South America production is the only real discussion point, and the market got ahead of itself buying Argentine dryness. Technical analyses now look pretty horrible so we have to find another reason not to take more money out of the market.

China is maintaining its zero-COVID policy which has left the global shipping lines in a complete mess. Two major Chinese ports are closed and container vessels are finding other ways and other ports to unload. The net result is at least 2 weeks delay.

More details are circulating in the trade about the recent Iraq purchase which may be the nail in the coffin for US wheat futures given their lack of participation. Australia was the seller and it looks increasingly likely that it will be stemmed from South Australia.

The Rosario Grain Exchange cut their soybean estimate to 40Mt (down 5Mt) and 48Mt on corn (down 8Mt). USDA currently 46.5Mt and 54Mt respectively. Market clearly more focused in the pending rainfall than the exchange cuts which seem pretty aggressive in corn. While in SAM, Brazilian agribusiness consultant, Agroconsult, called the bean crop 134.2Mt, down from 144.3Mt.

Australia

Local wheat and barley markets continued to find a bid yesterday and cash bids were relatively unchanged.

Canola values slipped. Cash bids were softer by $10-20/t. Trade markets found a bid late, not offered.

It was announced yesterday that Iraq bought around 150,000t of Aussie milling wheat for late Feb early March shipment at a US$447/t CFR price, and saw SA and Victorian milling wheat pick up on the bid side. The firmer bid saw more milling wheat offers come to the market.

A big infeed of east coast moisture is still forecast on the 8-day BOM and will push down into South Australia where widespread falls of 25-50mm are forecast. Western Victoria is slated to get 5-10mm. Some crop still remains standing in paddocks there.

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