Markets

Daily Market Wire 14 January 2021

Lachstock Consulting, January 14, 2021
Soybeans settled 1pc. Wheat and corn firmed. The US dollar index firmed from 90 to 90.3

  • Chicago wheat March contract down US4.5 cents per bushel to 660.5c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 3.25c/bu to 625.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 8c/bu to 628.75c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €2.25/t to €226.75;
  • Corn March contract up 7.25c/bu to 524.5c;
  • Soybeans March contract down 12c/bu to 1406.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract down C$2.20/t to $684.70;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract up €0.75/t to €442.25;
  • Brent crude March down US$0.52 per barrel to $56.06;
  • Dow Jones index down 8 points to  31,060 points;
  • AUD weaker at $0.775;
  • CAD firmer at $1.270;
  • EUR weaker at $1.216

International

  • Monday will be a holiday in the US, and CBOT/Minneapolis will be closed after Friday’s regular session and re-open for Monday’s night session.
  • Corona cases continue to jump globally, even as more vaccine doses roll out and Johnson and Johnson’s new vaccine approaches expected approval.  Markets continue to price in some recovery into the year, but back of mind concerns remain as we slowly tick forward in the calendar without massive changes to the situation
  • US politics is still in a mess with the attempt to impeach Trump, but on the economic side politicians have started pushing once again for a new stimulus  measure – with headline comments from Democratic politicians aiming over US1.3 trillion.
  • It’s been a while, but avian influenza is back in the news with the culls in India and a new announcement today about culls in Germany – though not expected to be widespread
  • Weekend rumours about an increase in the Russian export tax have continued, with proposals last night from the Ag Ministry to take it up by 20 euros.  Markets are expecting most of this tax increase to flow through to the FOB side with little impact to the interior Russian prices, despite that being the goal of the ag ministry.
  • Cash markets in the Black Sea region are up strongly again, both the tax and board strength helping.  Some $10+/t reported on the offer side and farmer selling still near zero. Bear in mind that the Platts price quote is a smoothed index and not a real cash market reflection.
  • Talk has surfaced about a potential merger between France’s Invivo and Soufflet, which would further consolidate the cash markets there
  • US ethanol production was reported at 941,000 barrels per day (bpd), up 6,000 from last week. Stocks continue to build, to 23.7 million.  The value of RIN ( Renewable Identification Number) credit remains weaker and the firmer corn market, along with  expectations about more blending waivers to come in the last few days of the Trump presidency have kept pressure on margins.
  • Brazil’s CONAB pegged soybean production there at 133.7 million tonnes (Mt), down 0.75Mt after the recent weather – current maps remain good for most of Brazil but Argentine dryness has not improved as we move closer to Feb
  • US sales flashes had 396,000t of old crop soybeans sold to unknown and one boat of new season to unknown, raising some questions about which parties in the market are interested in taking on new shorts.

Australia

  • Aussie wheat markets were up $7-10/t with a few zones showing even firmer moves in WA/SA.
  • Barley and canola have also seen support, with short covering on canola in particular as more export slots hit
  • The extended run weather maps are still pushing a mixed outlook into next week – watching to see if it turns into a better moisture event for the east coast.
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