Markets

Daily Market Wire 14 July 2020

Lachstock Consulting, July 14, 2020

Markets on Monday were lower.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US9.25c/bu to 524.75;
  • Kansas wheat September contract down 3c/bu to 449;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 7.5c/bu to 518.75;
  • Corn September contract down 8.5c/bu to 328.75;
  • Soybeans August contract down  13.25c/bu to 874;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract down C$2.10/t at C$477.40;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €2.25/t to €184.75;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €1.50/t to €381.75;
  • Brent crude September contract down US$0.52 per barrel to $42.72;
  • Dow Jones index up 11 points to 26086;
  • AUD weaker at $0.6936;
  • CAD weaker at $1.3618;
  • EUR firmer at $1.1346.

US corn weather pleasant surprise

Updated US crop progress figures out after close had corn off 2pc nationally good/excellent and beans off 3pc, while spring wheat was off 2pc to 70pc.  Harvest progress on winter wheat hit 68pc, slightly above 66pc average and well above last year’s 54pc, but no major surprise there after recent weather.  Black Sea harvest is also continuing to poke along and yields continue to remain poor, as expected.  Meanwhile, weather maps for the US corn belt have continued to bring pleasant surprises with models consolidating back towards more moderate conditions and dashing ideas that this week would cook the crop.  Scorching temperatures across the far southern Plains in Texas and other southern areas, it looks like a cooker in Florida, but far more moderate outlooks in the corn belt.  High night temperatures remain an agronomic concern, but the last few years have shown higher night temps not to be a problem when coupled with moisture, and rain chances are improving.

Talk of Ukrainian corn sales

We didn’t see any SRW export sales flashed to China, disappointing those who had held onto hope after Friday’s flashes, but more talk has focused on their purchases of Ukrainian corn.  Business was trickling in through the last two weeks, but the rumour now is up to 3 million tonnes.  Floods in China are not really a significant impact to our grain markets, although there is the potential for small trickle-through benefits if the rice impacts are confirmed.

Australia

Australian new crop values started the week softer albeit with very little liquidity.  Trade bids/offers were down a buck or two across the board and old crop values remain unchanged. Reports coming through of some decent rainfall through cropping areas along the east coast topping up crops and working in the recently top-dressed urea were great for yield potentials from here on.  Weather maps are showing chances for rain in WA into next week, with half an inch or more potentially for much of the wheat belt there; well appreciated if it falls.
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